Palm oil quotes fell 5.5% in the week

A seasonal increase in the supply of vegetable oils, amid a significant drop in oil prices and reduced demand from the biofuel industry, has led to the price of palm oil falling below the psychological level of 4,000 ringgit/tonne.

December palm oil futures FCPO1 on Bursa Malaysia fell 1.6% to 3,990 ringgit/t or $965/t yesterday, down 5.5% over the week, amid falling global oil prices and data on a decline in palm oil exports from Malaysia, which, according to surveyors, fell by 16.5% between November 1 and 25 compared to the same period in October. In addition, prices are being pressured by the strengthening of the ringgit against the dollar.

January Brent crude futures fell 3.8% to $62.5/barrel in the week (-3.8% in the month).

December soybean oil futures in Chicago fell 3.8% to $1,108/tonne in the week (-1% in the month) and will continue to fall as soybean oil exports from China increase.

It is worth noting that the price of soybean oil in Brazil increased by $10/t to $1,110-1,120/t FOB in a week, but the price of soybean oil in China fell by $10/t to $1,160-1,165/t Daylian, and China continues to increase supplies to India, which increases competition with traditional suppliers.

In October, China exported a record 70,877 thousand tons of soybean oil, most of which went to India, and in total for ten months of 2025, Chinese soybean oil exports reached 329 thousand tons, which is almost three times higher than the figures for the whole of last year. This is due to the excess supply of cheap Brazilian soybeans to China, which will continue to increase due to the obligation to buy additional volumes from the United States (12 million tons by the end of 2025).

Against the backdrop of the resumption of trade relations between China and India, soybean oil supplies will only increase, as Chinese soybean oil is $10-15/t cheaper than Brazilian oil on the Indian market, and delivery takes only 10-12 days, not 50-60 days, as from Brazil or Argentina.

China produces about 20 million tons of soybean oil each year and used almost all of it domestically. But with fewer restaurants and a slowing economy, consumption has fallen and commercial stocks have topped 1 million tons, a seven-year high as of mid-November, according to Mysteel.

Prices for sunflower oil delivered to India remained at $1,300-1,310/t CIF Mumbai during the week, although prices for Russian sunflower oil increased by $10-20/t to $1,200-1,210/t FOB (for delivery in November-December) during the week.

Demand prices for sunflower oil in Ukraine remained at $1,220–1,230/t for delivery to ports in November–December during the week, but supply increased amid reduced demand from EU buyers due to the depreciation of the euro.

Rapeseed oil prices in the EU fell by $10-15/t to $1,260-1,265/t FOB Netherlands over the week amid increased rapeseed supply and lower oil prices.

Vegetable oil markets expect increased supplies of canola oil from Canada and Australia in the coming months due to increased domestic canola processing, so we expect increased competition.

Tags: prices, palm oil