Palm oil prices continue to fall

Alexey Udovenko, a regular speaker at the international congress “Fat and Oil Industry” from “Sfera Congress”, regional director of the Malaysian Palm Oil Producers Council, Ph.D., analyzed the global palm oil market. The expert noted that exports in March decreased compared to February, while in February exports were already at a four-year low.

Malaysian palm oil futures fell by 3%, falling below MYR 4,500/ton, amid profit-taking. Weak export data increased the pressure: supplies in March decreased by 7.5-10.1% compared to the previous month, and exports in February reached a four-year low of 1 million tons.

The reduction in losses was limited by the “special action plan” announced in China to stimulate domestic consumption. China’s industrial output rose more than expected, with retail sales posting their biggest gain since October last year.

Malaysia’s palm oil stockpiles fell for a fifth month in a row, with production hitting a three-year low due to floods.

India’s imports rose 35.7% in February.

Chicago soybean futures rose slightly by 1-2 cents on Monday after rising 5-7 cents on Friday. May futures fell 9 cents on the week, while soybean oil futures rose.

Indonesia plans to use 17.9 million tonnes of palm oil to make biodiesel in 2026, which would require 2.3 million tonnes of methanol. The B50 program will require 2.3 million hectares of additional land, with potential expansion to B60 and B100. IDR 47.1 trillion has been allocated to support the initiative.

China’s tariffs on Canadian canola oil aim to protect domestic producers, which could boost palm oil demand.

Malaysia is pushing premium palm oil into China despite a 21% drop in exports to 1.39 million tonnes in 2024. Efforts include showcasing its use in the production of vitamin E-rich red jam.

Oil prices rise after US strikes on Houthis, China’s plans to boost consumer spending. WTI: Up to $68.03/bbl. Brent: Up to $71.42/bbl.

The Malaysian ringgit could weaken to 4.6/USD by mid-2025 on potential rate cuts and US-China trade tensions. However, fears of a US recession and a possible Fed rate cut could ease the pressure.

Tags: palm oil, prices