Pakistan’s wheat crisis deepens amid policy paralysis and rising prices

Pakistan’s wheat management system is once again mired in chaos, reflecting a troubling blend of policy paralysis and administrative failure. In an effort to curb soaring flour prices, the Sindh cabinet recently approved the release of 1.265 million tonnes of wheat to flour mills at a subsidized rate of Rs3,800 per maund. Meanwhile, the Punjab government has imposed strict restrictions on the interprovincial movement of wheat and flour through a permit-based system. Despite these measures, wheat prices continue to climb, signaling a growing imbalance between supply and demand, as reported by Dawn.

According to Dawn, policy circles are embroiled in debate over whether Pakistan’s existing wheat reserves can sustain the country until Sindh’s next harvest in March or if imports are inevitable. The Pakistan Flour Mills Association claims that poultry and livestock feed mills consumed over 1.6 million tonnes of wheat within four months post-harvest, using it as a cheaper substitute for maize. Punjab’s subsequent ban on using wheat in animal feed, implemented in September 2025, has been deemed tardy and ineffective. This excessive consumption, coupled with stock losses from recent floods, makes importing approximately 1.5 million tonnes of wheat unavoidable.

Uncertainty surrounds domestic reserves. The federal minister for national food security insists that reserves are adequate, but the lack of a transparent, reliable system to assess actual stock levels fuels widespread uncertainty. Most marketable wheat is now held by private entities, including mills, traders, and politically connected elites, who purchased large quantities during the harvest at Rs2,000–2,200 per maund, anticipating future profits, as noted by Dawn.

The government’s reluctance to acknowledge a shortage is politically driven, as admitting it would undermine prior claims of stability. However, delaying imports until next year could trigger disaster, sparking inflation, market panic, and public unrest. Experts warn that this indecision mirrors Pakistan’s earlier sugar crisis, where mistimed imports harmed farmers and fueled speculation.

Once again, the state appears to prioritize vested interests over consumers and growers, risking a deeper food security emergency in the coming months, according to Dawn. This situation underscores systemic issues in Pakistan’s agricultural policy, where regional disparities and corruption hinder effective resource management.

Tags: Pakistan, wheat, flour, food security