Pakistan faces potential wheat shortage amid war and drought

Pakistan risks a serious wheat shortage this year, threatening the country’s food security amid regional tensions and ongoing conflict with Afghanistan. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Pakistan’s wheat production is expected to drop by 2–2.2 million tonnes compared to last year.

This decline has raised concerns among policymakers, as wheat flour remains a staple for a large portion of the population. Products like roti, naan, bread, and other wheat-based foods form the foundation of daily diets for millions of Pakistanis.

The situation is particularly worrying because Pakistan exports large quantities of rice and maize while domestic consumption heavily relies on wheat. A reduction of over 2 million tonnes could significantly worsen food insecurity in the country.

Key factors behind the drop in production include prolonged drought, especially in rain-fed areas. Due to insufficient rainfall, the area under wheat cultivation has decreased from 10.37 million hectares in 2025–26 to 9.1 million hectares. Additionally, government delays in announcing wheat support prices left many farmers uncertain about sowing, reducing overall planting.

Rising flour prices also reflect the decline in production. By late February 2026, a 10-kg bag of flour ranged from 890 to 1,500 Pakistani rupees, with premium varieties sold at even higher prices. This trend is pushing more people into poverty and limiting access to basic food products.

The crisis is further aggravated by water management tensions linked to the Indus Waters Treaty and border conflicts with Afghanistan. The combination of drought, geopolitical risks, and water scarcity makes Pakistan’s wheat situation increasingly critical for millions of citizens.

Tags: Pakistan, wheat, Afghanistan, war