Overview of the 2021/22 season, in Ukraine and worldwide: Barley

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Maryna Marynych

Grain Market Analyst

The world production in 2021/22 MY decreased by 14.3 M mt or by 9% due to the reduction in Canada, the USA, russia and the EU. In Argentina, Australia and Ukraine grain production was stable.

Turkey significantly increased imports as a result of almost halving its own barley crop. The opposite situation (barley imports reduction) was observed in China, Saudi Arabia and Iran. This is the outcome of the domestic consumption redistribution in favor of cheaper corn and other grains.

Before russian war in Ukraine started, Ukrainian exporters managed to export almost 5.8 M mt (for July 2021 – February 2022), which is 37% more than last season. This is a record since 2009/10 MY, but in 2009 barley harvest was much larger. This indicates the growing export share in Ukrainian barley production, in 2021/22 MY it exceeded 60%.

China again was the biggest barley importer in 2021/22 MY, but its share decreased to 45% due to unprecedentedly increase in demand from Turkey (by 49 times compared to 2020/21 MY). Moreover, exports to China in the 2021\22 MY decreased due to the impossibility of deliveries in April-June.

Harvesting of the new 2022 crop has already begun in almost all regions. But a significant part of the areas under grain crops (incl. barley areas) is located in the occupied territories, so a big gap between the planted and harvested areas is expected.

UkrAgroConsult estimates the export potential in 2022/23 MY at 2.7 M mt, but the opening of sea ports is absolutely necessary the estimates turning into reality. The demand for Ukrainian barley in neighboring markets is not so high. Direct costs for cultivation and export logistics costs for delivery to the biggest market of China are not compensated by the current prices.

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Tags: China, Turkey, barley, EU, Canada, Saudi Arabia, USA, Argentina, Australia, Ukraine, Russia