Optimism grows in Australian wheat market thanks to July rains

July rains have brought relief to Australian farmers, improving forecasts for the new wheat crop, according to Fastmarkets. Rainfall across most regions saved crops in drought-affected areas like Victoria and South Australia while boosting yield potential elsewhere. Current harvest estimates exceed 30 million tonnes, with the highest projections reaching 33–34 million tonnes.

A local trader at the AGIC conference noted improved market sentiment following abundant rains, particularly in South Australia and Victoria. Ole Houe, CEO of Ikon Commodities, predicts a 34-million-tonne crop, up 2 million tonnes from earlier estimates. The best conditions are in northern New South Wales, southern Queensland, and Esperance in Western Australia.

Despite the positive outlook, Victoria and South Australia need more rain in September to sustain high yields. “Weather was tough, but above-average July rainfall revived crops. However, subsoil moisture remains low,” said Nick Crundall, CEO of Market Check.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARES) June estimate stands at 30.6 million tonnes, down 10% from last year’s 34 million tonnes. The USDA projects 31 million tonnes for the 2025/26 marketing year, compared to 34.1 million tonnes in 2024/25. The next ABARES update is due in September, with harvest starting in late October.

Last year, drought in South Australia and Victoria lowered expectations, but strong results in New South Wales and Western Australia offset losses. If August remains favorable, the harvest could exceed 34 million tonnes, further boosting market optimism.

Tags: wheat, crop condition, Australia