Oilseed processing capacity in Ukraine growing faster than production, creating raw material shortage

Ukraine is facing a growing imbalance between oilseed production and processing capacity. Despite an increase in oilseed acreage, the utilization rate of processing plants has been steadily declining since 2015–2016. According to Oleksii Tartakivskyi, market analyst at the Analytical Baton project, processing capacity is expanding faster than production. Since 2005, oilseed output has grown 1.8 times, while processing capacity has increased 2.2 times.

The analyst notes that Ukraine is running out of available land resources. The potential for new crop area expansion in the next 3–5 years is limited to only 1.5–2 million hectares. At the same time, farmers are switching part of their fields to more profitable crops, primarily corn, which this season generates around $1,000 profit per hectare — twice as much as sunflower.

Sunseed, despite remaining the country’s leading oilseed crop, is showing one of its weakest performances in recent years. According to Analytical Baton, the 2025 harvest is expected to reach only 10–10.5 million tons. Due to adverse weather and drought, yields have dropped by 11% compared to 2023. Moreover, the entire sunflower crop will be consumed domestically, putting additional pressure on the raw material market.

As for soybeans, after several years of steady growth, acreage in 2025 fell by 24% to 2.1 million hectares. The decline was driven by lower prices and higher profitability of competing crops. Tartakivskyi forecasts a further reduction of 400,000–500,000 hectares of soybean area. Nevertheless, soybean prices are expected to remain stable — around $420–430 per ton CPT-port, excluding VAT.

Rapeseed, traditionally an export-oriented crop, also suffered this year due to drought in southern regions. Experts estimate the actual harvest at 2.8–2.9 million tons, below official figures. However, strong demand from processors continues to support prices at around $560 per ton. Analysts expect competition for rapeseed to intensify in the first half of the marketing season.

Tags: oilseeds, sunseed, rapeseed, edible oils, soybean