Oil Market Enters a Phase of High Risks and Unstable Margins

UkrAgroConsult

The oil market in Ukraine is entering a phase where risks are becoming a central factor in decision-making. According to UkrAgroConsult, the balance between operational, geopolitical and financial pressures is reshaping market expectations.

Integral market downside risk is estimated at 25.8%, while the sales margin of a typical oil extraction plant reached about 9.3% in March, reflecting a fragile profitability structure.

Operational risks remain elevated due to fuel and energy factors. Diesel prices fluctuated between 52–69 UAH/l, and logistics costs increased by more than 20%, directly affecting production economics.

Fertilizer markets are also under pressure, with price increases and disrupted supply chains driven by Middle East tensions, where a significant share of global nutrient trade is routed.

UkrAgroConsult notes that the combination of geopolitical risks, logistics challenges and cost inflation is forming a more complex and less predictable market environment.

Risk index reflects interaction between key market factors. Margin dynamics illustrate fluctuations with partial recovery. Fuel price trends highlight volatility and impact on costs.

Key trends

• High integrated market risk level
• Margins remain fragile
• Fuel and logistics costs are rising
• Fertilizer supply disruptions intensify risks
• Geopolitical factors drive volatility
• Market becomes less predictable

Tags: export, soybean oil, prices, margin, edible oils, rapeseed oil, supply and demand balance, sunflower oil