November USDA report: from one extreme to another

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Maryna Marynych

Grain Market Analyst

Оn November 10, the USDA published its latest monthly report, which drew attention primarily due to changes for corn.

The corn crop forecast for Ukraine was cut by 8 MMT, to 28.5 MMT. The reason for this significant change is deplorable harvest-progress data published by the Economy Ministry – yield has not yet exceeded 5 MT/ha.

Some market participants (including UkrAgroConsult) believe these data are understated.

The second noticeable change was growth in American corn exports with a simultaneous increase in Chinese imports.

The current season is unusual because of atypically high prices, which were high even at the time of very optimistic crop estimates for Ukraine and the U.S.

According to the November USDA estimates, global corn exports will hit another high (owing to China) and world ending stocks are estimated at the lowest since MY 2014/15.

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