No More Cheap Oranges: Egypt Shifts to Processing

Egypt, the world’s second larges exporter of fresh oranges and the leading exporter of affordable oranges, is on the cusp of a transformative shift in its citrus industry. EastFruit team with reference to industrial representatives, reports that in  2026, six new factories dedicated to producing orange juice concentrate are set to commence operations, with a combined processing capacity of approximately 2 million tons per year.

This follows the launch of two large processing facilities in 2025, which have already disrupted the fresh orange market. With Egypt’s total orange production estimated at 5 million tons in 2025, the rapid expansion of processing capacity—potentially absorbing 40% of the country’s output at full utilization—threatens to redefine Egypt’s role as a supplier of affordable fresh oranges. Driven by high global orange juice concentrate prices, Brazil’s ongoing struggles with citrus greening, and evolving global citrus trends, this processing boom is likely to inflate orange prices, particularly in the low-price segment, while posing challenges for farmers and exporters.

A Surge in Egyptian Processing Capacity

Egypt’s orange processing sector is expanding at an unprecedented rate. The two factories launched in 2025 have increased demand for processing-grade oranges, diverting second-grade fruit from the fresh market. The six additional factories planned for 2026, with a collective capacity of 2 million tons, could consume 20% of Egypt’s orange production even at an estimated 50% initial capacity utilization (1 million tons annually). This follows a 2025 harvest reduced by nearly a third due to abnormal heat during flowering, yielding 90% medium-sized fruit less suited for premium fresh markets like the Gulf and Eastern Europe.

The rapid development of Egypt’s orange juice concentrate industry is a response to global market opportunities. Frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) prices have surged to $3.50-$4.17 per pound in 2023-2024, driven by supply constraints in Brazil, the world’s largest orange juice producer. Brazil’s 2024/25 orange crop is forecast at 13 million tons, down due to citrus greening (Huanglongbing), a bacterial disease with no cure, which has reduced yields to 215.78 million 40.8-kg boxes, a 7.1% drop from initial estimates. Despite improved greening controls (54% incidence reduction, per Fundecitrus), Brazil’s juice exports remain constrained, with not-from-concentrate (NFC) shipments down 3.4% from July 2024 to January 2025. This global shortage has positioned Egypt to capture market share in orange juice concentrate.

Impact on Egypt’s Fresh Orange Market

Egypt has long dominated the global affordable orange market. However, the pivot to processing is reshaping this role. The two 2025 factories have already distorted the fresh market by absorbing second-grade oranges, which are easier to sell for processing than to market fresh. The 2026 factories will intensify this trend, as processors compete with exporters for limited supply. EastFruit analysts report that export prices for Egyptian oranges on FOB terms surged from $0.43-$0.45 per kg in mid-April 2025 to $0.66 per kg, driven by reduced harvests, seasonality, and processing demand.

The low-price segment, where Egypt excels, is at risk. Egypt’s medium and smaller oranges traditionally supply cost-conscious markets in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, especially for fresh juice segments. With domestic processors offering a ready market for these grades, farmers are incentivized to divert fruit from fresh exports, reducing availability and pushing prices higher. This could erode Egypt’s competitive edge in the affordable segment.

Challenges and Opportunities for Egyptian Farmers

For Egyptian farmers, the processing boom is a double-edged sword. Selling second-grade oranges to processors ensures stable income and reduces waste, but competition for fruit could marginalize smallholders, as large processors prioritize volume. The reduced 2025 harvest, with 90% medium-sized fruit, intensifies price pressures across both fresh and processed markets. Farmers also face rising input costs, mirroring global agricultural challenges like drought and energy price spikes in Europe.

To navigate these challenges, Egypt’s government and industry must balance fresh and processed markets. Investments in disease-resistant varieties, as seen in Brazil, could boost yields and stabilize supply. Enhancing cold storage and logistics, as Australia has done, could maintain fresh orange competitiveness. Supporting small farmers through subsidies or cooperative models could ensure equitable benefits from the processing boom.

Tags: Egypt, prices, oranges