Next year’s harvest is expected to decline in Ukraine due to lower production profitability

Ukraine’s Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Mykola Solsky said during a press conference in Kyiv on Tuesday that Ukraine’s grain harvest in 2024 will be smaller and some fields may remain unplanted due to reduced profitability.

“I think we will have a smaller harvest next year, as several factors have coincided this year. Firstly, everyone sowed to the maximum by inertia compared to last year. Secondly, the weather was almost perfect,” the minister explained.

When asked if there was a possibility that some fields would remain unseeded, Solsky said it was likely. He pointed out that for some agricultural companies it would be more profitable to pay land rent than to plant crops and risk unprofitable results due to high costs.

The Minister refused to provide specific forecasts on the amount of unplanted agricultural land, but noted that this could affect the overall harvest of grains and oilseeds in Ukraine.

“In the best years, when we got (yields) of 3.2 tons, we were able to recover the company’s value in a year. And this year, farmers will probably break even if they harvest 3.2 tons,” the minister said.

He also said that the autumn sowing campaign is nearing completion, and winter crops are suffering due to the autumn drought. In his opinion, the reduction of winter wheat plantings in favor of other crops is a normal process, even if it brings temporary difficulties for farmers.

The Minister also recalled a similar situation in 2022, when there was also a reduction in winter wheat plantings, but this problem was already forgotten by society.

It is worth noting that despite the war and uncertainty with grain exports, the vast majority of Ukrainian farmers do not plan to significantly change the area under winter crops compared to last season.

Tags: oilseeds, wheat, crop forecast, Ukraine, grain