New data shows wheat could lose half its best land by 2100

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has upgraded its innovative geospatial app with a new indicator which has provided data showing that several major crops – including wheat and beans – could lose half their best land by 2100.

Designed for policymakers, technicians, and project designers, the Adaptation, Biodiversity, and Carbon Mapping Tool (ABC-Map) app offers an initial screening of the climate-related risks, essential biodiversity indicators, and carbon reduction potential of a selected project.

It is an open-source satellite imagery app, based on Google Earth Engine, with information from global datasets.

Following its upgrade, ABC-Map now features a new indicator that provides information on the suitability of major crops in evolving climate scenarios to the end of the century.

FAO senior natural resources (Climate Change) officer Martial Bernoux said the new information could help ensure our capacity to cope with climate change and its impacts on land in the long-term.

“Given the increasingly erratic weather and extreme events – including droughts, extreme heat, and floods – farmers, policymakers, and technicians need to know if the crops, investments, or projects they are considering will work or if they need to adjust and consider other crops or more adaptation measures instead,” Bernoux said.

“Our ABC-Map tool can now better assist them with these considerations, further reinforcing climate resilience.”

Concerning data for wheat and other crops

The new indicator, developed by FAO, incorporates data from a study by French fintech start-up Finres, commissioned by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and funded by the French Development Agency (AFD).

The study – ‘Have crops already reached peak suitability: assessing global climatic suitability decreases for crop cultivation’ – uses a new method to assess crop suitability in varied climate scenarios.

It concludes that five out of nine major staple and cash crops – including wheat, coffee, beans, cassava, and plantain – are already losing optimal growing conditions, and some could lose half their optimal suitable land by 2100.

In particular, the study’s researchers suggest that coffee production in some of the major coffee-growing regions could decline sharply by 2100.

They say beans and wheat could experience significant losses, especially in regions such as North America and Europe.

Maize and rice, however, could initially find more suitable areas for cultivation, the researchers suggest, but this situation could reverse by the end of the century under high-emission scenarios.

Tags: wheat