New (actually old) Russian threats to attack ukrainian ports push Chicago grain prices higher

Russia has once again threatened to intensify strikes on Ukrainian ports and vessels entering them, prompting a reaction in the Chicago grain markets. Brokers report heightened trading activity and rising prices, advising not to delay sales, while the Black Sea Strategic Research Institute remains skeptical about Russian statements.

Following remarks by the Russian president, trading chats and exchanges saw a sharp increase in activity and prices, according to broker Volodymyr Levkovskyi. Wheat futures on both Chicago and Euronext surged $8–14/ton over a short period amid concerns about potential disruptions to Black Sea shipping and logistics. Currently, there is no official confirmation of changes to the maritime corridor operations.

Levkovskyi noted that after the recent incident involving the shelling of a Russian tanker in the Black Sea, escalation risks have grown, potentially leading to more attacks on Ukraine’s port infrastructure. He emphasized that market participants should plan export operations carefully, considering these risks, and ensure liquidity and risk management.

Last week, HarvEast CEO Dmytro Skorniakov explained that the company is trying to sell grain as quickly as possible due to fears of continued Russian strikes on rail and port infrastructure, which could increase logistics costs. Alternative export routes, such as rail to the EU or Danube ports, are limited and mostly serve large holdings, making Black Sea deep-water ports the primary channel for substantial exports.

According to Andriy Klymenko, head of the Black Sea Strategic Research Institute Monitoring Group, Russian forces conducted at least 107 attacks on the ports of Greater Odesa, southern Odesa ports, and regional industrial infrastructure between January and September 2025 — averaging roughly one attack every three days. In November 2025, Ukraine’s grain exports accounted for 60% of overall agricultural exports, with wheat and corn comprising 35.8% and 61.3% respectively. The total value of grain exports reached $639.1 million, up 11.5% from October, largely driven by a near doubling of corn exports, while wheat exports fell by almost 27%. Major export destinations included Italy (nearly 16% of total exports) and Turkey (over 15%), reinforcing Eastern Mediterranean trade links.

Tags: prices, wheat, war, Ukraine, Russia, grain