MPOC sees palm oil prices stabilising in near term amid rising demand from India

Palm oil prices are expected to stabilise in the near-term, driven by a recovery in production and demand from key importing markets such as India, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC).

Its chief executive officer Belvinder Kaur said weaker palm oil imports from December 2024 to February 2025 had led to a sharp decline in India’s vegetable oil inventories.

“Despite a surge in soybean oil imports over the past three months, India has only partially replaced its palm oil demand.

“Given this scenario, there is optimism that India will increase palm oil imports in the coming weeks to replenish stocks, supporting palm oil prices,” she told Bernama.

Belvinder also said that the volatility of crude palm oil (CPO) prices is heavily influenced by global supply and demand dynamics.

As of February 2025, Malaysia’s palm oil inventory stood at 1.51 million tonnes, down from 1.92 million tonnes in February 2024 and 2.11 million tonnes in February 2023.

“With seasonal production recovery from March onwards, Malaysia’s palm oil inventory is expected to rise gradually to meet global demand without creating supply pressure,” she said.

Recently, MPOC projected CPO prices to fluctuate between RM4,400 and RM4,600 in March 2025, influenced by increased competition from abundant and competitively priced soybean oil in the global market.

The council said that high palm oil prices and tight export supplies have impacted consumption in key markets such as India and China, particularly in the first two months of this year.

In 2024, the United States imported 191,000 tonnes of palm oil from Malaysia, accounting for 1.1% of Malaysia’s total palm oil exports.

Belvinder said that while the volume is relatively small compared to Malaysia’s overall palm oil exports, the US remains an important market due to its specialised demand.

“Malaysian palm oil exported to the US is primarily used in specialised applications where substitute options are limited, making demand relatively inelastic.

“About 65% of Malaysian palm oil exports to the US are certified and used in high-value products, while 20% consists of palm stearin, a key ingredient in food manufacturing and personal care products,” she said.

Given these factors, Belvinder said that the impact of potential US import tariffs on Malaysia’s palm oil industry is expected to be minimal.

“The specialised nature of US palm oil demand ensures that the market remains relatively resilient to trade policy changes,” she said.

 Belvinder also noted that Malaysia’s domestic palm oil consumption averages around 300,000 tonnes per month, with demand typically rising during festive seasons such as Ramadan and Hari Raya.

“Palm oil production follows a seasonal pattern, usually declining from October to February. Adverse weather conditions can make harvesting more challenging, while excessive rainfall reduces fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yields,” she said.

However, Belvinder assured that Malaysia’s palm oil production is expected to recover gradually from March onwards, ensuring sufficient supply for the domestic market.

“We do not foresee any shortages of palm oil supply in Malaysia,” she added.