Morocco’s heavy reliance on wheat imports set to continue

Morocco’s cereal crops may have received a late-season boost from abundant rainfall in March and April, but early-season drought conditions minimised the production upside, leaving output below the 10-year average and the country heavily reliant on imports in the 2025-26 marketing year.

Cumulative rainfall registrations during the winter months of December, January and February were more than 60 percent below the long-term average in key producing regions in the northwest of the country, marking the second consecutive year of drought conditions and poor winter-crop production across much of the country.

The arid conditions at the beginning of the season led to substantial planting delays, particularly in the southernmost cereal-growing regions, where seeding was not completed until the first week of January. At the beginning of the season, the Ministry of Agriculture reportedly projected a winter cereal area of 5 million hectares (Mha).

However, the prolonged dry conditions and inadequate rainfall caused apprehension among farmers, preventing many from proceeding with their entire program. Consequently, around 40pc of the government’s forecast area remained unseeded with final plantings of 3Mha sitting around 30pc below the 10-year average.

The variance in planting timelines across the winter-cropping area resulted in noticeable differences in crop development, with the early seeded fields suffering the most. While spring rains did boost soil-moisture reserves and help the later-planted crops, they came too late in most regions to recover all of the yield potential lost over the parched winter months.

According to recently released government data, Morocco’s farmers ended up reaping 3.5 million tonnes (Mt) of wheat in the 2025 harvest, which commenced in May and concluded in late July. This output was generated from 2.2Mha, yielding an average of 1.59t/ha.

The wheat result was 42.3pc higher than the previous season’s harvest disaster of 2.46Mt, which came from the same harvested area at an average yield of just 1.2t/ha. However, this year’s harvest was 15.8pc below the 2023 harvest of 4.16Mt off 2.43Mha at an average yield of 1.71t/ha.

Wheat production consisted of 2.5Mt of soft wheat, commonly milled and used for bread, an important dietary staple served with most meals, and 1Mt of durum, which goes into traditional foods such as couscous and pasta. Total domestic demand for wheat is forecast at 9.6Mt, 98pc of which is used for food, seed and industrial purposes. Around 200,000t of wheat goes into the stockfeed sector annually.

In the United States Department of Agriculture’s September global supply and demand update, Morocco’s wheat import forecast for the 2025-26 marketing year was decreased from 6.7Mt to 6.5Mt due to the late boost in domestic production. This is down fractionally from 6.6Mt in 2024-25, but 500,000t, or 8.3pc higher than imports in 2023-24.

According to a recent forecast from the industrial group France Intercereales, Morocco is likely to import more than 3Mt of French milling wheat this season, accounting for around 20pc of France’s total wheat export program for 2025-26, and around 37.5pc of the country’s wheat shipments to destinations outside the European Union. Morocco has reportedly purchased around 1Mt of French milling wheat so far this season.

France Intercereales expects Morocco to import at least 5Mt of milling wheat and 1Mt of durum for a total of 6Mt, slightly less than the USDA forecast, with 60pc of that milling wheat program to be supplied by France. The ongoing trade dispute between France and Morocco’s Maghreb neighbour, Algeria, is assisting the cause as French wheat exporters seek alternative homes for the traditional Algerian flow.

While the current global wheat trade environment is slated to result in a reversion to more traditional trade flows out of France in 2025-26, Morocco has expanded its supplier base in recent years to include Germany, Canada and Poland, as well as the key Black Sea exporters of Russia, Romania, and Ukraine.

In the 2022-23 marketing year, France accounted for 50.9pc of Morocco’s 6.24Mt import program, with Germany and Canada accounting for 15.7pc and 17.1pc, respectively. The Black Sea region accounted for just 3.2pc, with Russia on zero. In the 12 months to May 2025, imports from non-EU Black Sea exporters increased to 1.43Mt, or 22.7pc of total wheat imports, with Russia accounting for 1.19Mt. Imports from EU member states were 3.63Mt, with the Black Sea state of Romania a large supplier.

This season’s barley production ended up at 950,000t from 800,000ha, putting the average yield at 1.19t/ha according to government figures. This compares to the harvest output of 660,000t in 2024 from the same harvested area, for a disastrous yield average of 830kg/ha. While the average yield from the 2023 harvest was similar to this year at 1.15t/ha, the harvested area and production were much higher at 1.17Mha and 1.35Mt respectively.

Barley is primarily consumed as animal feed, with consumption rates varying depending on local availability and pasture conditions. The industry anticipates a substantial decline in stockfeed consumption in the 2025-26 marketing year due to a significant decrease in livestock numbers in Morocco following consecutive years of drought.

Demand for barley in 2025-26 is expected to fall accordingly, with current projections for the stockfeed sector of 1Mt more than 35pc lower season on season. Food, seed and industrial use is expected to remain static at 800,000t, putting the nation’s total consumption at 1.8Mt, down from 2Mt in 2024-25 and 2.4Mt in 2023-24. The fall in domestic demand will be reflected in import requirements, with the 2025-26 forecast of 900,000t, 18.2pc lower than the 2024-25 program and 41.3pc lower than purchases in 2023-24.

Tags: wheat, drought, yield, imports, milling wheat, Morocco, cereal crops, durum, barley, rainfall, Production