Mexico’s grain consumption continues to rise

Overall grain consumption is expected to rise for Mexico in marketing year 2025-26 in line with the country’s population growth, and as the production of calves, pigs and poultry increases, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

Mexico’s corn production for 2025-26 is forecast by the FAS to increase by 3% year on year to 24.5 million tonnes. Producers expect higher local prices for white corn due to lower stocks, leading to higher planted area. After two years of drought conditions and improved prices, farmers are optimistic for an improved harvest, the FAS said.

Corn imports, which are nearly all supplied by the United States, are forecast to drop by 3% to 24.8 million tonnes, reflecting increased domestic production and higher carryover stocks from the record-high imports in the previous year.

“Nonetheless, the forecast production is 10% lower than the 10-year average due to relatively high average farmer debt, constrained finance mechanisms, and rising insecurity, which limits a substantial increase in planted area,” the FAS said. “Imports are forecast the second highest on record, driven by growing demand for yellow corn by the livestock sector, particularly increased poultry feed demand.”

Total corn consumption in 2025-26 forecast at 49.8 million tonnes, up 500,000 tonnes over the previous marketing year. White corn consumption for tortillas is expected to remain stable, as they remain a staple in the Mexican diet. An average tortilla consists of approximately 82% white corn flour and is blended with 18% yellow corn flour.

Meanwhile, wheat production is seen falling 39% to 1.6 million tonnes in 2025-26 due to a prolonged drought and low reservoir levels, the FAS said. Planted area is seen dropping 38% to 290,000 hectares.

In response to the lower production, wheat imports are expected to rise 8% to 6.5 million tonnes. Insufficient durum wheat production cannot cover domestic demand, and exports will remain minimal at 50,000 tonnes.

Wheat consumption in 2025-26 is forecast to rise 1% to 8.1 million tonnes due to increased bread wheat demand in line with population growth, which currently is about 130 million people.

In 2024, the wheat milling capacity of the country’s 90 wheat mills was 10.7 million tonnes. The wheat flour sector utilizes about 68% of available capacity, processing 7.3 million tonnes of wheat into 5.5 million tonnes of wheat flour and semolina in 2024, the FAS noted.

Mexico’s rice production is forecast to reach 170,000 tonnes, up 4% on expected government support for increased productivity. Imports are forecast to grow 1% to 880,000 tonnes as consumption grows with population.

Sorghum production is forecast at 3.9 million tonnes, 3% higher than the previous year’s estimate based on expected higher prices. Sorghum imports are forecast to fall to 30,000 tonnes, driven by higher imported sorghum prices and sufficient domestic production.

Tags: rice, wheat, crop forecast, Mexico, corn