Mexico to need lots of imported wheat in 2025

Analysts predict that Mexico’s national grain and oilseed production will fall to its lowest level in 25 years by 2025 due to ongoing drought and widespread water shortages, particularly affecting the country’s northern, northwestern and central regions.

Agricultural Markets Consulting Group (GCMA) estimates that Mexico’s total production this year will be just 32.4 million tons of grains and oilseeds, down 8.4 million tons from 2021’s 40.8 million tons, a decline of 20.59%. The crops most affected will be corn, wheat and sorghum, which are key to both national food security and industrial supply chains, writes Elisa Galeana, an industry analyst for Mexico Business News.

In particular, corn production is forecast to decline to 21.7 million tons, down 5.4% from the previous year. Of this, 19 million tons will be white corn and 2.69 million tons will be yellow corn. Juan Carlos Anaya, director of the GCMA, noted that the corn harvest has been declining for two years in a row due to drought, with the main decline in production coming from Sinaloa and Sonora, the largest corn-producing states in Mexico. In 2025, Sinaloa production is forecast at 1.8 million tons, while Sonora will only produce 98,525 tons.

Despite recent rains in south-central Mexico, northern states continue to face critically low reservoir levels. According to the latest report from the National Water Commission (CONAGUA), published on June 20, the 12 reservoirs in Sinaloa state together contain only 6% of their total storage capacity, representing a deficit of more than 800 million cubic meters compared to the same period last year.

By the end of the year, GCMA forecasts that national production will cover only 42% of the base demand for grains, significantly lower than the 53% coverage recorded at the end of 2024.

To compensate for the low production, imports are expected to grow by 6.1%. Corn imports alone could reach 25.1 million tons, of which 24.6 million tons would be yellow corn, mainly from the United States, and 500,000 tons of white corn, for which Mexico remains self-sufficient. In addition, wheat imports are expected to amount to 6.7 million tons.

In Queretaro, corn and bean production could increase significantly in 2025 compared to 2024. Romualdo Moreno, president of the Queretaro Regional Livestock Union (UGRQ), noted that recent rains in the state could lead to a 50% increase in corn and bean yields compared to last year. According to the state Department of Agricultural Development (SEDEA), the agricultural sector was unable to produce 48,989 tons of corn in 2024 due to drought. Rosendo Anaya, Queretaro’s agriculture secretary, reported that 21,165 hectares of corn remained unplanted due to lack of rain, directly affecting 9,421 families. In addition, the drought has also led to an increase in pests and diseases affecting both livestock and crops.

Across Mexico, grain production is expected to reach its lowest level in 25 years due to severe water shortages.

Tags: wheat, Mexico