Mexico cuts corn production amid rising costs and low prices

Mexican corn production in the 2026/27 season will decline under the pressure of rising costs and unfavorable price conditions. According to the USDA FAS forecast, production will decrease to 24.5 million tons, which is 3% less year-on-year and 7% below the average over the past decade.

One of the key reasons is the surplus of white corn, formed after the previous season’s high harvest. Combined with significant grain imports from the United States, this has led to a drop in domestic prices below cost, which is holding back farmers’ decisions to expand plantings.

Despite the reduction in production, corn imports will continue to grow and reach 26.8 million tons. The main supplier remains the United States, which provides almost all of the supply thanks to competitive prices, developed logistics and stable export potential.

Total corn consumption in the country will increase to 52.5 million tons (+2% year-on-year). The main driver is increased demand for yellow corn from the feed industry and livestock, while consumption of white corn for the production of traditional products, including tortillas, will remain stable.

At the same time, demand for cereals in general will be supported by demographic growth and the development of the meat sector. The country’s population is expected to approach 133 million people, and economic growth will contribute to the expansion of domestic consumption.

Against this background, Mexico will continue to remain one of the largest importers of cereals in the world. Limited domestic production capabilities, together with high demand from the feed industry, will shape the country’s further dependence on foreign supplies.

Tags: corn, imports, crop forecast, Mexico