Logistical tension in Ukraine has begun to ease

At the beginning of last week, grain logistics in Ukraine rose sharply in price. The highest rates were recorded in the Kyiv region and part of the Sumy region – up to 1.8–2 thousand UAH/t, although there were few real deals at such prices. At the end of the week, the logistics load began to weaken, said Kostyantyn Halakhandryk, co-founder of the brokerage company White Brokers.

“This logistics hype began to subside somewhat by the end of the week. Free wagons even began to appear. It was a situational hype, where large volumes of shipments of old forwards, “burning” contracts and forwards extended for the third time were superimposed on the difficult situation in terms of traction. Wagons are standing still, wagons are moving very slowly,” says Halakhandryk.

He noted that this gives reason to expect a decrease in transportation costs by 100–200 UAH/t.

Port infrastructure problems are also affecting the situation. Due to power outages and delays in approving plans, congestion has arisen at some terminals. This has led to some wagons arriving for loading without confirmed plans, and owners have had to urgently reorient them to other consignments or transfer them to other shippers. As a result, the supply of free wagons has increased.

At the same time, corn prices in the ports have slightly decreased – from $211-212/t to $208-209/t against the backdrop of constant arrivals, threats of repeated strikes and increased supply. According to Halachandryk, prices may also decrease on the western border in the coming days due to a high supply wave. Currently, end buyers at the border are buying corn for January delivery at a price of €184-185/t, and for March-April – about €188/t.

Tags: rail transportation