Lack of results in US-China talks puts pressure on soybean prices

Following talks between the US and Chinese delegations from September 14-17, Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping held a phone call on Friday, during which they discussed trade, the fight against fentanyl smuggling, the possibility of ending Russia’s war with Ukraine, and a deal on TikTok. However, it is not yet clear whether the parties have reached an agreement.

Beijing’s statement said that a deal to sell TikTok has not yet been concluded: “China’s position on TikTok is clear: the Chinese government respects the wishes of the relevant company and will welcome fruitful commercial negotiations that comply with market principles, which will lead to a solution that complies with Chinese laws and regulations and takes into account the interests of both parties.”

Trump also announced planned meetings with Xi Jinping, which are scheduled to take place during the APEC summit in South Korea in November and during his upcoming visit to China early next year. In turn, Xi Jinping will also visit the United States “at the appropriate time.”

There was very little mention of trade, so American farmers’ hopes for a resumption of soybean supplies to China continue to fade along with prices.

November soybean futures in Chicago fell 1.2% to $376.5/t on Friday, having lost 2.3% since September 16 (3.1% for the month) amid a lack of progress in trade talks.

According to USDA, as of September 18, U.S. soybean export sales for 2025/26 were 10.277 million tons, which is only 22% of the current export forecast for this season, compared to 43% on average at that date.

It should be recalled that the lack of export sales to China continues to pressure quotes as the harvest and supply of the high soybean crop in the US increases.

American farmers (who are suffering greatly from Trump’s policies, but constantly vote for him) will have to lower prices and look for new markets in Europe and the Middle East, which will significantly increase competition for soybean exporters from Ukraine, so a significant decrease in export prices for soybeans in Ukraine can be expected in the near future.