Lack of precipitation in the Black Sea countries, Brazil and the US will increase the speculative impact on prices in the near future

The dry and hot weather in August and September in Ukraine, Romania, the US corn belt and southwest Russia is reducing the harvest potential of late crops and delaying winter planting. And the lack of rainfall in Brazil does not allow to start sowing soybeans.

This week, the front brought scattered rains to Ukraine, which reduced temperatures to normal. However, the lack of precipitation over the next week will have a negative impact on sowing and the condition of winter rapeseed and wheat. Farmers have started harvesting soybeans, corn and sunflower and confirm lower yields than last year.

In the Midwest and the U.S. Plains in the next 10-14 days, the heat will reach 30-33°C and accelerate the ripening and harvesting of soybeans and corn, but reduce their yields, which has already led to an increase in stock prices. Soil moisture reserves are quite high, so farmers will immediately start sowing winter wheat.

In the prairies of Canada, dry and warm weather is favorable for harvesting spring wheat and canola. Next week, temperatures will rise and accelerate the maturation of late crops.

In most of Brazil remains very dry and hot weather, and in the state of Mato Grosso the heat reaches 35-37 ° C, which does not allow to start sowing soybeans, which is carried out in September – October. Only in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul there was sufficient rainfall. According to forecasts, there will be no rains in the central regions of the country until the end of September, which will delay the sowing of soybeans and, accordingly, corn of the second harvest, which is sown after soybeans. This may lead to a decrease in the yield of both crops, so traders are closely monitoring the progress of the sowing season.

Argentina is also experiencing dry but cool weather, which is unfavorable for winter wheat and corn planting. Next week, temperatures will rise, but the lack of precipitation will have a negative impact on crops.

In western Europe, it rained again this week, which may move to the east of the region next week, where dry and hot weather continues to degrade the yield potential of late crops and delay the sowing of winter crops.

Tags: crop condition, Argentina, Ukraine, Romania, Brazil, EU, USA