Kazakhstan is taking over the Chinese linseed market in Russia

Kazakhstan is preparing to strengthen its position in the linseed market, primarily in China, where competition among key suppliers is expected to intensify. According to APK News, Russia’s introduction of an export duty on linseed in October has created additional advantages for Kazakh exporters. With European markets closed to Russian companies, the bulk of Russian linseed will also be shipped to China, increasing competition for this market.

According to Yevgeny Karabanov, head of the Kazakhstan Grain Union’s Analytics Committee, this year will be a record-breaking one for Kazakhstan’s linseed industry. The net harvest is expected to be 810,000 tons—the highest in six years. In bunker terms, the forecast is 1.03 million tons, a 35% increase from last year. This growth will allow Kazakhstan not only to meet domestic demand but also to significantly expand exports.

In the last marketing year, the country exported 524,000 tons of linseed, a 74% increase from the previous year. The main destinations remain EU countries, primarily Belgium (188,400 tons), Poland (39,100 tons), and Germany (12,500 tons). Meanwhile, shipments to China increased 1.6-fold to 191,900 tons, demonstrating a steady expansion in the Asian market.

In the MY 2025/26, the Grain Union forecasts Kazakhstan’s linseed exports at 680,000 tons, with Europe, China, and Afghanistan remaining the main destinations. Given the record harvest and favorable logistical conditions, Kazakhstan could partially displace Russia from the Chinese market, where price competition will intensify due to Russian tariffs.

Analysts note that global linseed production will increase this year: Canada, Russia, and Kazakhstan have increased their acreage under linseed cultivation, and supply on the global market will be record-breaking. However, thanks to its flexible export policy and the absence of trade restrictions, Kazakhstan has the opportunity to establish itself as a major linseed supplier to China, taking advantage of the weakness of its Russian competitors.

Canada – 328,000 tonnes (+27% y-o-y);
Russia – 1,630,000 tonnes (+21% y-o-y);
Kazakhstan – 810,000 tonnes (+26% y-o-y).

Tags: Russia, China, Kazakhstan