Kazakh wheat prices rise due to harvest delays

The export price of grade 4 wheat in Kazakhstan, which dropped to $180 (DAP Saryagash) in early September, climbed to $190 by the end of the week, with Uzbek buyers offering $195 for deferred payments. The price surge is driven by adverse conditions for the new harvest, as persistent rains across northern Kazakhstan delay fieldwork, leading to grain shedding and reduced quality due to gluten washout.

Farmers across Kazakhstan, as reported by the ElDala.kz team during the AgroCaravan Harvest 2025 from East Kazakhstan to Kostanay, fear a repeat of 2023, when rains prevented timely harvesting, resulting in significant losses and a drop in grain quality to non-graded levels. Such a scenario could further tighten the supply of food-grade wheat, pushing prices higher, especially as local millers now face increased competition for domestic grain due to limited access to foreign supplies.

The earlier price drop in September was driven by buyers from Tajikistan and Afghanistan, who demanded discounts for cash payments, exerting pressure on the market. However, responsible Kazakh traders, wary of the risks associated with informal deals, have avoided such practices, helping stabilize the market. Farmers are now anticipating a minimum price of 110,000 tenge per ton for grade 3 wheat ($200 at the elevator or $230 on the wagon).

Two factors could further support the market. First, the Food Corporation is expected to announce procurement prices for forward contracts next week, providing a benchmark for farmers. Second, the anticipated extension of export subsidies for Kazakh wheat to distant markets will likely intensify domestic competition for grain, further bolstering prices.

Tags: Kazakhstan, prices, wheat, harvesting