Japan’s rice production will continue to decline

Rice production in Japan in 2026/27 will reach 7.38 million tons, down 1.5% from the previous season, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Despite a brief increase in rice acreage in 2025/26 amid sharp price increases, a resumption of the downward trend is expected. Rice acreage is forecast to decline by 0.8% to 1.46 million hectares.

The FAS notes that the decline is due to the continued departure of older farmers from the industry, as well as a shift by agricultural producers toward more profitable crops, including wheat, barley, and corn.

Meanwhile, domestic rice consumption in the country in 2026/27 could increase by 1.9% to 8.05 million tons, primarily due to increased use for feed. Despite maintaining its status as a staple food, table rice consumption in Japan has shown a steady decline over the past decades, amid a shrinking and aging population, as well as falling per capita consumption.

“While food rice still accounts for the bulk of demand, feed rice is playing an increasingly important role in balancing the market,” the report notes.

FAS estimates that rice imports will decline by 11% in 2025/26 to 750,000 tonnes, and by another 7% to 700,000 tonnes in 2026/27, amid weakening private purchases.

Wheat production is expected to increase by almost 7% to 1.113 million tonnes, driven by farmers returning to this crop following the price surge. Wheat imports are projected at 5.55 million tonnes (-3.5%), due to increased domestic production and reduced demand from the feed sector.

Since 2023/24, Canada has surpassed the United States to become Japan’s largest supplier of milling wheat due to competitive prices and growing demand for bakery products and pasta. The bulk of these supplies are high-quality Canadian Western Red Spring wheat, used in baking, as well as durum wheat.

Barley production will also return to growth as rice prices stabilize. In 2026–2027, the crop’s acreage will increase by 2% to 65,000 hectares, with the gross harvest reaching 235,000 tonnes (up 2.2%). Barley imports are expected to reach 1.1 million tonnes (down 4%), with total demand at 1.43 million tonnes. Australia and Canada remain the main suppliers of feed barley, while milling barley is also imported from the United States.

Corn in Japan is primarily grown in rice fields as an alternative crop. Despite gradual production growth, it only covers approximately 0.1% of domestic demand, leaving the country significantly dependent on imports.

In 202/27, corn imports are projected at 15.6 million tonnes (-0.6%), with total consumption at 15.65 million tonnes. The main suppliers are the United States and Brazil, with pricing remaining the key factor in determining which corn supplier to import.

Tags: rice, Japan, crop forecast