Israeli strikes on Iran have led to a sharp increase in oil and agricultural prices, but the expected ceasefire is putting pressure on quotes

Following Israel’s massive strike on Iran on June 13, 2025, which hit military and nuclear weapons facilities and eliminated almost all of Iran’s top military and nuclear program leadership, oil prices rose 11% on Friday.

By the end of the session, it became clear that Iran would not be able to adequately respond to such powerful strikes, so August Brent crude futures rose by 7.26% per day to $74.1/barrel (+14% per month).

The main reason for the rise in oil prices is fears that Iran may try to block the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, through which almost 20% of the world’s oil supplies pass.

Iran has fired hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel, including at civilian homes, killing civilians, and Israel has stepped up attacks on oil and gas infrastructure, prompting Iran to announce on Sunday a proposal to abandon its nuclear weapons program. However, Israel wants to destabilize Iran in order to change the Ayatollah regime and the Iranian government’s policies and plans to destroy Israel.

The sharp rise in oil prices led to a speculative increase in agricultural crop prices, so

• July wheat futures in Chicago rose 3%,
• September wheat futures in Paris – up 2%,
• August rapeseed futures in Paris – by 2.6%.

Oil prices will continue to decline this week, as OPEC+ members have excess capacity and can easily and quickly increase oil production in the event of supply disruptions from Iran or the Persian Gulf, so we expect further speculative fluctuations on the stock exchanges.