Iran war pushes wheat prices up – But will they hold through the US harvest?

Four years after Russia invaded Ukraine, global conflicts have again thrust the wheat market into the spotlight. This time, attention has shifted to the Middle East: U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran shook commodity markets and helped wheat futures extend a winter rally, briefly pushing prices above $6 per bushel in early March.

However, it is unlikely that the market’s long-term response will mirror 2022, when Russia’s invasion fueled a surge that sent hard red winter wheat futures near $14 per bushel. Still, U.S. farmers approaching the winter harvest have some reasons for cautious optimism.

First, drought in the Southern Plains. Most of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle remained in moderate to severe drought through February, and state-level crop ratings dropped sharply at the start of 2026.

Second, fewer acres and lower yields. In February, the USDA forecast U.S. wheat plantings for 2026 at 45 million acres, down 0.7% from 2025 and the lowest in six years. Production is expected to fall 6.3% to 1.86 billion bushels.

Despite the winter upswing lifting July 2026 HRW futures from a December low of $5.29 to nearly $6.08 (+15%), the past two years show that such early-year rallies can be short-lived: the average peak-to-expiry decline was about $1.45, or 21%. Extended geopolitical tensions may create a headline-driven market this spring, but weather and other domestic factors will also influence prices, and market movements are likely to be swift.

Tags: prices, wheat, USA