India’s soybean harvest forecast to fall by nearly 15% in 2025/26

According to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service of the United States Department of Agriculture (FAS USDA), reduced planting area, adverse weather conditions and crop diversification have led to a decline in projected soybean production in India for the 2025/26 season.

In its report dated August 26, the service forecast a 12% decline in Indian soybean production from its initial forecast to 10.7 million tonnes and a 14.98% decline from last year’s record crop of 12.58 million tonnes.

The decline in production is due to a 12% reduction in harvested area. In addition, producers have switched to other water-intensive crops such as rice and sugarcane, taking advantage of ample rainfall. Producers have also begun to plant more corn, expecting higher financial returns, the service said.

Indian corn production is rising due to growing domestic demand from ethanol, starch and animal feed producers.

FAS also noted that soybean crushing is forecast to decline 6% from 2024/25 to 9.5 million tonnes, driven by lower feed demand and tighter margins.

Soybean meal production is forecast to decline as producers face operational and financial challenges from lower crushing volumes and increased competition from Argentine soybean meal. Exports remain limited, with meal ending stocks forecast to decline 52% to 455,000 tonnes.

India’s soybean oil imports are expected to rise 60% year-on-year to a record high in the 2024/25 season as oil mills boost soybean purchases due to lower prices than rival palm oil, whose supplies are expected to hit a five-year low.

Tags: crop forecast, soybean, India