India’s edible oil imports seen lower in 2023/24

According to Sudhakar Desai, president of the Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association (IVPA), oil imports in 2023-24 MY (November-October) will be around 16.20 mln tonnes.

Speaking at the Global Economics and Marketing Conference of the International Palm Oil Congress and Exhibition (PIPOC) 2023 in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, he said that palm oil imports during the 2023-24 oil year are expected to reach 9 million tons and liquid oils around 7.12 million tons.

Desai predicts that Malaysia’s palm oil production could increase to 18.85 million tons during the year from 18.61 million tons in the previous year, an increase of 240,000 tons. Indonesia’s production is expected to remain stable at 49.26 million tons.

According to him, while Malaysia’s stocks will increase by about 2.7 million tons, the market is expected to move to a reduction in ending stocks by April-May 2024.

In his forecast for palm oil prices, Desai said that Bursa Malaysia Derivatives (BMD) will hover in the range of RM3,600-3,900 over the next three months. He also hinted at the possibility of prices rising to MYR4,200 by March due to the deteriorating inventory situation, especially in Malaysia.

Growth thanks to low prices

Speaking about the huge growth in India’s oilseed imports, he said that imports reached a record 16.9 million tons during 2022-23. This significant growth after two years of decline was driven by attractive low prices in the market, which not only led to a significant increase in inventories but also stimulated a significant increase in consumption.

Forecasting a normalized consumption growth of about 2.8% in 2023-24, Desai said that total consumption could reach 25.20 million tons. This will affect the dynamics of the Indian market and its strong influence on the global vegetable oil market.

Tags: India, Malaysia, palm oil, imports