India reaches record grain production

Record harvests of rice, wheat and corn due to favorable weather conditions pushed India’s 2024-25 grain production to a new record of 353.96 million tonnes, nearly 22 million tonnes higher than last year, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

Production also is expected to increase in 2025-26 for wheat and rice due to an expected above-normal 2025 monsoon.

“The 2025 monsoon rains arrived on the coast of India’s southernmost state, Kerala, on May 24, 2025, eight days earlier than normal, marking the earliest arrival in 16 years and offering hope for a bumper harvest in the upcoming season,” the FAS said.

Wheat production for 2025-26 is estimated at a record 117.5 million tonnes, up 4% over the previous harvest of 113.3 million tonnes.

“Timely planting, favorable weather conditions and an absence of any weather aberrations or pests/diseases during the reproductive stage through harvest (February-April) bolstered yield prospects,” the FAS said.

Despite the record harvest, the government is concerned about price escalation due to hoarding and price speculation by private trade. As a preemptive measure, on May 27, the Indian government has imposed stock limits on wheat applicable to traders, wholesalers, retailers, and processors effective until March 31, 2026.

The stock limit for trader/wholesaler is 3,000 tonnes, retailer is 10 tonnes per retail outlet and processor is 70% of monthly installed processing capacity multiplied by remaining months of 2025-26.

The ban on export of wheat and wheat products is likely to continue in 2025-26. Trade sources report that export prospects are weak as Indian wheat prices are significantly above the global prices, even for the neighboring markets, the FAS said.

Rice production in 2025-26 is estimated at 150 million tonnes, up from 149 million tonnes. Exports for 2025-26 are estimated at 25 million tonnes, up from 24.5 million tonnes, assuming no significant changes in the export policy and current price parity.

MY 2025/2026 corn production in 2025-26 is forecast at 42 million tonnes, down slightly from an increased estimate of 42.6 million tonnes for 2024-25.

Tags: crop forecast, corn, grain, rice, wheat, India