India expected to record rice harvest in MY 2025/26

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), India’s rice production in the MY 2025/26 is projected to reach a record 152 million tonnes. At the same time, wheat production is expected to rise to 117.9 million tonnes from 113 million tonnes last year. In contrast, the oilseed sector may see a decline, with production forecasted at 40.3 million tonnes compared to 41.5 million tonnes in 2024/25.

As of December 5, farmers had sown 24.14 million hectares of wheat, significantly higher than 21.78 million hectares last year. The expansion of planted areas and favorable weather conditions were key factors behind the record rice harvest, confirmed by satellite imagery analysis.

Analysts note that farmers are increasingly shifting from cotton to rice due to its higher yields and lower risks. Favorable rainfall during the planting season and the late withdrawal of the monsoon provided adequate precipitation in late August and September, supporting healthy crop development.

Despite the increase in oilseed planting area to 8.41 million hectares from 8.17 million hectares last year, production of these crops declined. The Indian government is implementing the National Mission on Edible Oils and Oilseeds to boost domestic production and reduce import dependence. The program covers rapeseed, mustard, groundnut, soybean, and sunflower, and includes the use of high-yielding varieties and the creation of over 600 production clusters.

According to India’s Ministry of Agriculture, rice production in the kharif season is estimated at 124.504 million tonnes, up 1.732 million tonnes from last year. Total kharif food grain production is expected to reach 173.33 million tonnes, reflecting steady growth in the country’s agricultural sector.

Tags: rice, India, crop forecast