India braces for unusually hot March: Wheat and rapeseed crops at risk

India is likely to record one of its warmest Marches on record, with temperatures forecast to remain well above average in key grain-producing regions. According to sources at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), higher-than-normal temperatures could threaten wheat and rapeseed crops during critical stages of development.

The sharpest temperature increases are expected in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and parts of Madhya Pradesh — states that account for more than 80% of India’s total wheat and rapeseed output. Maximum and minimum temperatures in March could rise significantly above historical averages, in some areas by as much as 7°C. By the end of the month, daytime temperatures in several regions may exceed 40°C.

The heat wave is forecast to coincide with the crucial grain-filling and maturity stages of winter crops. Wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas are typically sown between October and December and require cool weather throughout their growth cycle to achieve optimal yields. Prolonged above-normal temperatures in early March could cause heat stress, potentially trimming production that had been expected to reach record highs in 2026.

India, the world’s second-largest wheat producer and the largest importer of edible oils, is counting on a strong harvest to resume wheat exports and reduce costly imports of palm, soybean, and sunflower oils. In 2022, the country was forced to ban wheat exports after an unusually warm February and March severely damaged the crop.

Analysts also warn that persistently high temperatures could boost electricity demand as cooling needs increase across northern and northwestern states. The IMD is expected to release its official March temperature outlook later this week, but market participants are already preparing for potential volatility in grain and oilseed prices.

Tags: wheat, India, rapeseed, crop forecast