Increased wheat harvest forecasts in Russia and lower export prices are increasing pressure on wheat prices in Ukraine

Low activity of importers and another increase in the forecast for the wheat harvest in Russia are increasing pressure on wheat prices in the Black Sea region, including in Ukraine.

IKAR experts again increased the forecast for the Russian wheat harvest in MY  2025/26 by 0.5 million tons to 86 million tons (USDA estimates it at 83.5 million tons), and exports by 0.5 million tons to 43 million tons, while last season they amounted to 83 million tons and 43 million tons, respectively. The main reason for the adjustment was the good yield of spring and winter wheat in the center and the Volga region.

In Ukraine, this week, export demand prices for food wheat decreased by 100-300 UAH/t to 10,400-10,700 UAH/t or $220-227/t, and for feed wheat – by 100-200 UAH/t to 9,400-9,600 UAH/t or $200-205/t.

Low export demand and strong competition with cheaper Russian wheat make it difficult for traders from Ukraine to sell expensive Ukrainian wheat, so they are reducing purchasing activity, although farmers are also reducing wheat sales.

The restrictions on grain supplies from Ukraine to the EU are already affecting demand. According to ASAP Agri, as of August 20, 2025, about 324 thousand tons of the EU’s annual quota for duty-free imports of Ukrainian wheat of 583 thousand tons have already been used, so less than 240 thousand tons remain available for supply by December 31.

At the same time, against the backdrop of a decrease in wheat imports from Ukraine, the EU is increasing domestic wheat consumption and reducing exports, even despite an increase in its own production compared to the previous season from 122 to 138 million tons.

According to the European Commission, in the MY  2025/26 (as of August 26), EU exports of common wheat decreased by 48% compared to the same period last year to 2.18 million tonnes, although there are no complete data from France and Bulgaria yet. The leaders in terms of common wheat exports were Romania (1.26 million tonnes), Lithuania (195.6 thousand tonnes), Bulgaria (183.2 thousand tonnes) and Poland (164.14 thousand tonnes).

Despite the low activity of importers, wheat prices in recent tenders remain high and sometimes exceed $265/t C&F. According to market operators, Jordan’s state buyer MIT purchased 60,000 tons of food wheat (out of the planned 120,000 tons) from Cargill in an international tender on August 26 for delivery to the port of Aqaba from October 16 to 31, 2025 at a price of $267.5/t C&F, while the bid prices in the tender were $269.88-$280/t. The agency said it plans to hold another tender next week to purchase a similar volume of wheat.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, wheat