Increased soybean supply increases pressure on quotes and lowers prices in Ukraine

Export purchase prices for soybeans remain under pressure from falling stock prices and reduced demand due to uncertainty over the introduction of a 10% export duty on soybeans and rapeseed, which is still being discussed in parliament.

In Ukraine, export demand prices for non-GMO soybeans have fallen by $15-20/t to $410-415/t or UAH 19,000-19,500/t with delivery to the port due to the suspension of purchases by major traders, but demand for June deliveries of GMO soybeans remains active, so prices are UAH 17,900-18,200/t or $382-386/t.

Processors have reduced prices for GMO soybeans to UAH 17,000-17,200/t delivered to the plant amid falling export demand and prices for meal, and given the intensification of sunflower processing and the approaching start of rapeseed processing, they are unlikely to increase soybean purchases in July and August.

Very favorable weather conditions in the US continue to improve the condition of soybean and corn crops, which increases the pressure on quotes, especially against the backdrop of falling prices for soybean oil and crude oil.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, July soybean futures fell 4.9% to $376.6/tonne (-3.6% per month) over the week, and November futures fell 4.9% to $374/tonne.

Rumors that China is buying Brazilian soybeans for delivery in August-September are increasing concerns about whether China will buy the new soybean crop from the United States.

Interestingly, Iran bought 1.3 million tons of soybeans from Brazil out of 1.4 million tons purchased in the tender, as well as 933 thousand tons of Brazilian meal out of 1 million tons of soybean meal purchased.

On Monday, the USDA will report on US crop acreage and quarterly inventories, which could significantly impact markets.

Traders expect U.S. soybean plantings to be 83.5 million acres, the same as the March forecast, although the range of estimates is 82 million to 85 million acres.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, soybean