Increased EU rapeseed harvest forecast puts pressure on quotes

Oil World experts have increased the forecast for the rapeseed harvest in the EU in 2025 by 0.7 million tons compared to June estimates, to 20 million tons, which will significantly exceed the figure for 2024 (17 million tons).

For example, for Romania, the rapeseed production forecast has been increased to 2.65 million tonnes (1.29 million tonnes in 2024) due to the expansion of the sown area by over 60% to 0.87 million hectares. The forecast has also been increased for France (to 4.35 million tonnes), Germany (to 4 million tonnes), Latvia and Sweden, while the estimates for the Czech Republic (to 1.13 million tonnes) and Estonia have been reduced, as the rapeseed area in these countries is smaller than the initial forecasts.

In the July report, USDA FAS experts left the forecast for rapeseed production in the EU at 19.45 million tons (16.86 million tons in 2024) due to an increase in the sown area from 5.7 to 5.97 million hectares and an average yield from 2.96 to 3.26 tons/hectare.

Increased production in the EU will allow an additional 2.4 million tons of rapeseed to be supplied to the domestic market in the 2025/26 MY, which will more than compensate for the significant reduction in stocks of the old crop and reduce the dependence of EU processors on imports, especially against the backdrop of a decrease in the harvest and the introduction of export duties on rapeseed in Ukraine.

August rapeseed futures in Paris fell 1.2% on Friday to €473/t or $550/t (-4.4% for the month) amid improved harvest forecasts.

After the decision of the Verkhovna Rada to introduce export duties, purchase prices for rapeseed in Ukraine decreased to 23,500–24,000 UAH/t with delivery to the port, while prices in foreign currency remain at the level of 535–540 $/t, so producers are massively preparing for sales under foreign exchange contracts, which will ensure supplies of most of Ukrainian rapeseed to the EU.

November canola futures fell 3.6% to CAD 700/t or $510/t in the month amid improved weather in the growing area and a new wave of uncertainty with tariffs in the US. Canadian canola prices remain at a high level, which provides farmers with high profitability, and also have a large discount compared to EU rapeseed prices ($63/t), which improves the prospects for supplies to the EU.

Therefore, Ukrainian farmers can safely sell rapeseed at a price of $540/t with delivery to the port, without expecting a sharp change in prices in the coming months.

Tags: EU, prices, rapeseed, crop forecast, Ukraine