Increased activity of importers and frosts next week will support wheat prices in Ukraine

Amid active export demand and restrained sales by farmers, export prices for wheat in Ukraine’s Black Sea ports continue to rise.

Prices rose during the week:

• for food wheat – by $2–4/t to $225–227/t or UAH 10,600–10,750/t,
• for feed wheat – by $1–3/t to $217–220/t or UAH 10,300–10,500/t.

Ukrainian wheat exports accelerated in February and amounted to 540 thousand tons in the first 12 days, which is inferior to January’s 831 thousand tons. In total, in the 2024/25 MY, Ukraine exported 11.34 million tons of wheat, which exceeds last year’s figure (9.97 million tons).

Tenders for the purchase of wheat will stimulate export demand, so Ukrainian farmers should sell their wheat at fairly decent prices, given the significant remains of unexported wheat in the EU, Kazakhstan, and Australia, which will increase pressure on the market at the end of the season.

According to traders, the Algerian state agency OAIC purchased 360,000–400,000 tons of food wheat from Romania, Bulgaria, and Ukraine at an international tender at a price of $262–263/ton CIF.

The General Authority for Food Security of Saudi Arabia (GFSA) has announced a tender for the purchase of 595,000 tons of wheat for delivery from May 1 to July 15, 2025. Applications will be accepted until February 14, and the results will be announced on February 17.

Forecasts of a new wave of frost in the US winter wheat growing regions next week may again lead to a speculative increase in quotes.

March wheat futures rose yesterday:

• by 0.6% to $212.3/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 1.1% to $219.8/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 0.3% to $226.5/t for durum spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

Meanwhile, on the Euronext exchange in Paris, March wheat futures fell 0.4% to €231/t or $241.5/t due to low export rates and increased harvest forecasts for the next season.

From January 31 to February 6, wheat export sales from the United States increased by 29.8% compared to the previous week to a 7-week high of 569.6 thousand tons, which is 63% higher than the same period last year.

According to USDA estimates, by the end of the 2024/25 MY, EU countries could export about 17 million tons of wheat. However, over the past 7 months, an average of 1.7 million tons were exported per month, and to reach the projected level in the next 5 months, 3.4 million tons of wheat per month would need to be exported, which seems unlikely and could lead to the accumulation of significant ending stocks.

Strategie Grains has raised its forecast for wheat production in the EU in 2025 by 0.5 million tons to 127.7 million tons (121 million tons in 2024) due to the expansion of sown areas.

According to official data, as of February 1, 2025, Kazakhstan exported 5 million tons of wheat, and has reserves of 13.8 million tons, of which 11.8 million tons are food wheat. Such residues will create additional pressure on the market at the end of the season. Recall that last year Kazakhstan harvested only 12 million tons of wheat.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, wheat