Improved yields swell Canada’s 2025-26 wheat crop

Improved yields are projected to push Canada’s wheat production, including durum, to an all-time high of 39.96 million tonnes for marketing year 2025-26, up 11% year on year and 23% over the five-year average, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

If realized, the 2025-26 crop would surpass the previous record of 37.59 million tonnes set in 2013-14 by 6%, the FAS said in its Feb. 2 update.

The year-on-year increase is primarily due to improved yields for Canadian Western Red Spring (CWRS), followed by Canadian Western Amber Durum (CWAD), and winter wheat. Total wheat yields increased from 3.37 to 3.75 tonnes/hectare. Total wheat area planted increased by 1% to 10.66 million hectares.

Spring wheat production increased 10.3% over the previous marketing year to 29.3 million tonnes on higher yields of 3.95 t/ha versus 3.51 in 2024, offsetting lower harvested area, which fell 2.1%.

Durum wheat production rose 11.8% to 7.1 million tonnes on improved yields and increased harvest rate. Yields were 2.75 t/ha compared to 2.49 in 2024.

Winter wheat production increased 17% to 3.6 million tonnes on an increased harvested area, despite lower yields, which were 5.75 t/ha after reaching 5.84 in 2024.

Due to a 3.3 million tonnes upward revision in Canada’s wheat production estimates for 2025-26, the FAS increased its exports forecast by 900,000 tonnes to 29.5 million tonnes, the equivalent of 67% of domestic supply. Exports for one of the world’s top what shippers were estimated at 29.3 million tonnes the previous year and 25.4 million tonnes in 2023-24.

“Canada’s wheat industry is heavily export-orientated, and in the past five years (since 2020-21), Canada has exported 53% to 71% of its total wheat supply each year,” the FAS said.

Domestic consumption for 2025-26 is forecast to be 21% of total supplies, or 9.35 million tonnes, up from 8.4 million tonnes in 2024-25 and in line with the three-year average.

Tags: Canada, wheat, crop forecast