Improved weather in South America and lack of precipitation in the Black Sea region will affect markets next week

In the near future, grain markets will be influenced by news of snowfall in the US, which saved crops from severe frosts, and a decrease in precipitation in Brazil, which will allow for an acceleration of soybean harvesting and sowing of a second crop of corn. In Argentina, rains are improving the condition of crops, while in the Black Sea region, a lack of moisture reduces the potential for future harvests.

This week, weather conditions in central Brazil have allowed farmers to significantly accelerate soybean harvests and corn plantings. However, rainfall is expected in the state of Mato Grosso next week. Some safrinha corn will be planted late, but significant moisture reserves will promote good germination and early plant development.

Argentina has returned to hot and dry weather with temperatures above 30°C after heavy rains earlier in the week, but a new wave of rain is expected next week. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that the corn crop in excellent condition has increased by 3% to 19%, while the poor condition has decreased by 30%. The soybean crop in excellent condition has increased by 2% to 17%, while the poor condition has increased by 34%.

In Ukraine and the southwestern regions of the Russian Federation, where winter wheat is mainly grown, the temperature dropped to -10…-15°C this week, which, combined with the lack of snowfall, increased the risk of crop damage. Overall, only 30-50% of the normal precipitation fell during the winter, so the March rains will be critical for the restoration of plant vegetation. Next week, temperatures are expected to rise above 0°C, but without significant precipitation, which increases concerns about the future harvest.

Snow fell in the US earlier this week, protecting most winter crops from frosts that reached -20…-25°C in the central part and could damage unprotected plants. Next week, temperatures will be 5-10°C above normal in most regions and additional precipitation will occur.

Europe will be dry this week, but a front with rain will move through western regions on Friday and Saturday. In Spain, it will be necessary for the harvest, but in the UK and France – excessive. Temperatures are expected to rise next week, while in Bulgaria and Romania, moisture deficits continue to accumulate.

According to the India Meteorological Department, rainfall in the northwestern regions of the country, where wheat is mainly grown, has been almost 80% below normal since the beginning of the year. January was the third warmest since 1901. The dry and hot weather is expected to continue for at least another month, which could reduce yields. The sowing season in India lasts from October to December, and harvesting begins in March. Farmers say that if the warm weather continues, crop losses could exceed 20%, but stable temperatures in March could prevent significant losses.

Tags: Ukraine, Brazil, Black Sea region, USA, crop condition