Import of Ukrainian agricultural products to Poland does not affect the decline in grain prices – IPF

The statement that imports of Ukrainian agricultural products to Poland are a crucial factor affecting the situation of Polish farmers is not true. This is stated in an analytical study conducted by experts of the independent Institute of Public Finance (IPF) in Poland.

The experts analyzed the veracity of the statements most often voiced during the “grain crisis” and protests in Poland.

Their findings show that grain imports from Ukraine do not significantly affect grain prices in Poland, let alone the price situation in the EU.

The claim that part of the grain is imported from Ukraine to Poland through other countries, including Lithuania, is also false.

The analysts also refuted the widespread opinion in Poland that the embargo on imports from Ukraine could significantly affect the stability of prices on the agricultural market.

IPF experts emphasize that the embargo does not have a significant impact on prices nationwide, especially in the context of the EU’s single agricultural market, as prices depend on many factors, including the global situation.

The IPF emphasizes that imports from Ukraine are not the main reason for the economic difficulties of Polish farmers. As emphasized, the trade balance with Ukraine in agricultural products is negative, but this does not apply to all products. In particular, there are sectors where Poland has a positive trade balance with Ukraine, such as the meat and dairy industry.

On the other hand, a complete embargo on products from Ukraine will not change the domestic market situation, as prices on world markets play a dominant role.

IPF experts emphasize that two theses were the most popular among Polish protesters: to ban imports of agricultural products from Ukraine and to abandon the European Green Deal. At the same time, few people voiced the thesis of low profitability of growing crops.

The IPF points out that Poland’s trade balance with Ukraine is generally positive and amounted to 31.4 billion zlotys (over 8 billion euros) in 2023. In the context of imports, Ukraine’s share is only 1.2%.

As for agricultural products, Poland has a negative balance in the import of grain, seeds, and certain types of fruit. On the other hand, Poland has a positive balance in exports to Ukraine of meat, fish, dairy products, coffee, tea, condiments, etc.

Experts draw attention to the fact that in 2023, Poland imported only 1 million tons of grain from Ukraine, which, given Polish grain production of 35.2 million tons, “cannot be a factor that significantly affects the price drop.”

It is emphasized that the fears of farmers that part of Ukrainian grain enters Poland through Lithuania are not confirmed, as its imports from this country have been systematically falling in recent years: from 90 tons in 2017 to 24.9 tons in 2023.

At the same time, the authors of the study draw attention to whether a complete embargo on products from Ukraine will lead to a response from the Ukrainian authorities and, as a result, to the loss of markets for livestock products, including dairy, meat, and semi-finished products. In this case, the consequences of Poland’s violation of international treaties, the EU’s trade policy with third countries, and WTO rules should also be taken into account.

Tags: grain, EU, prices, Poland, Ukraine