IGC forecast: global market of grains and oilseeds MY 2024/25

The experts of the International Grains Council (IGC) in their September report left unchanged the forecast of global grain production in MY 2024/25 at 2.315 mln tonnes (11 mln tonnes higher than in MY 2023/24), as the decline in wheat production will be offset by the growth of corn harvest.

The forecast for global grain consumption was increased by 4 million tons to 2.325 billion tons, which is 9 million tons higher than in MY 2023/24. However, due to the upward revision of the beginning stocks, the estimate of global ending stocks in MY 2024/25 remains at 581 million tons (10-year low), which is 10 million tons less than in MY 2023/24.

The forecast for global wheat production is lowered by 1 million tons to 798 million tons (795 million tons in MY 2023/24), mainly due to lower harvest estimates in the EU. The estimate of world ending stocks of wheat in MY 2024/25 is increased by 1 million tons to 267 million tons due to the adjustment of the beginning stocks by 2 million tons (272 million tons in MY 2023/24).

The forecast for global corn production is lowered by 2 million tons to 1.224 (1.227) billion tons due to lower harvests in the EU and Ukraine, which is not offset by growth in the US. Consumption estimates were raised by 1 million tons to 1.230 (1.223) billion tons, and ending stocks were lowered by 1 million tons to 276 (281) million tons.

The forecast for global soybean production is left at a record 419 million tons, which is 26 million tons more than in MY 2023/24. Consumption forecast is left at 406 million tons, up 21 million tons from MY 2023/24, and ending stocks of soybeans will be at 82 million tons, up 13 million tons from last season.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) increased by 5% compared to the previous month, but is still 15% lower than in the same period last year.

The IGC GOI wheat sub-index rose by 4%, recently hitting a three-month high, driven by weather concerns in some exporting countries as well as broader geopolitical concerns.

Despite the absence of new positive news, the IGC GOI corn sub-index rose by 5% m/m due to speculative and technical coverage of short positions on the CME. The increase was also due to stronger US export premiums in the Gulf of Mexico.

The IGC GOI sub-index for soybeans was up 8% due to improved US export demand and unfavorable weather conditions for planting in Brazil, although average prices are still 19% lower year-on-year.

Tags: grain, barley, wheat, crop forecast, corn