IGC experts forecast record world grain production in 2024/25 MY

In the March report, IGC experts lowered the forecast of global grain production in 2023/24 MY by 6 mln tonnes to 2.3 bln tonnes, which is 2% higher than the previous season. The adjustment is due to the deteriorating prospects for corn harvest in the Southern Hemisphere.

In addition, IGC released the first forecasts for 2024/25 MY, according to which the grain production will reach a record 2.33 billion tons due to the increase in wheat and feed grain harvest. Grain consumption may also reach a record level due to the active use of feed.

Wheat

The production forecast for 2023/24 MY has been increased by 1 million tons to 789 million tons compared to February’s estimates. In 2024/25 MY, production is expected to reach 799 mln tons.

Soybeans

The harvest forecast for 2023/24 MY is increased by 4% to a record 390 million tons due to the recovery of production in Argentina, which will compensate for the decline in the harvest in Brazil and the United States. In all of these countries, consumption will be at its highest, so processing volumes will increase sharply. Trade will decrease by 3% compared to last year, in particular, supplies to China and Argentina.

In 2024/25 MY, the production will grow by 6% due to the increase in planted areas and yields. Trade will increase by 4% due to active supplies to Asia, Africa and the Americas, as well as increased consumption and stocks of soybeans.

Rice

The reduced harvest in major producing countries will lead to a reduction in global production, supplies, consumption, and stocks. Due to the extension of the ban on exports from India, the trade will decrease by 3% compared to the previous season.

In 2024/25 MY, supply and demand will recover thanks to Asian countries, and trade will be stable as Indian supplies will be significantly lower than the current peak.

Pulses

The total volume of global pulses trade in 2024 will increase to 20.8 mln tonnes due to the increased demand for dry peas.

Corn

In 2024/25 MY, the production will increase by 0.5% to 1.23 billion tons compared to the current season.

Tags: rice, soybean, wheat, crop forecast, corn