IGC again raise global grain production forecast and expect global stocks to increase for the first time in 10 years

In their May report, experts from the International Grains Council (IGC) raised their forecast for global grain production in MY 2025/26 by 2 million tons to 2,375 million tons compared to April estimates, which would exceed the current season’s harvest (2,310 million tons) by 2.8%, in particular, the forecast for corn production – up to 1,274 million tons (1,223 million tons in MY 2024/25). A significant increase in production is expected in the EU, Argentina, and the USA.

The forecast for global grain consumption has been reduced by 1 million tons to 2,372 million tons, which will be 2% higher than the 2024/25 MY (2,334 million tons), due to increased use of soybeans for feed, industrial, and food purposes.

The estimate of world trade has been increased by 4 million tons to 428 million tons (418 million tons in MY 2024/25) due to increased wheat supplies.

The forecast for world carrying stocks of grain has been increased by 5 million tons to 585 million tons, which will exceed the current season’s figure by 4 million tons, while stocks at the world’s leading exporters will grow by 15 million tons. The last annual increase in world ending stocks was recorded in 2016-2017.

Thanks to good harvests in South America, global soybean production in 2025/26 MY will increase by 2% compared to the previous season to 428 million tons, while increasing demand for soybean products in the feed, food and industrial sectors will allow record processing volumes to be achieved.

Global rice production, after increasing by 14 million tonnes in 2024/25, is projected to reach a record 495 million tonnes in 2025/26, driven by strong harvests in China and major exporting countries. Rice trade in 2026 is projected to grow by 2% year-on-year, driven by increased imports from Africa and Asia.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index declined slightly compared to the April report, primarily due to a 4.5% drop in the corn sub-index, while most other constituent components were little changed.

Tags: corn, grain, wheat, stocks, crop forecast