How the EU market will change if restrictions on US soybean imports are imposed

In response to possible US imposition of duties on European goods, the EU may ban imports of crops that do not meet its standards. One of the first products to be banned is US soybeans. This decision is intended to protect European farmers from cheaper competition, but the effectiveness of this measure remains in question.

Short-term effects of the ban

In the short term, the possible restriction of US soybean imports to the EU could cause significant market instability. This is due to the fact that 16% of all soybeans imported to the EU come from the United States, according to Susanne Fromwald, Secretary General and International Project Manager of Donau Soja.

According to Roxanne Nicoro, the market analyst at Expana Markets, in the season 2023/2024, the U.S. soybean supplies to the EU increased by 3.18% year-on-year. At the same time, imports from Brazil increased faster – by 7.7%. This may indicate a gradual increase in the share of Brazilian soybeans in the European market.

European soybean production is also going through difficult times. According to Donau Soja, in key countries such as Ukraine, Italy and the Balkan region, the area under this crop may decrease due to low yields and low purchase prices. This may deter farmers from further expanding their acreage.

Despite these challenges, soybeans have certain advantages over other crops, including corn. It requires fewer inputs and has more flexible sowing dates, making it more attractive to farmers. In January, prices for non-GMO soybeans in Europe ranged from 430-450 euros per ton.

Long-term prospects

In the long run, the restriction of U.S. soybean imports may increase demand for European products, and with it, prices. “This will be a positive factor for European soybean farmers,” Fromwald said. According to her, this may also be an additional incentive to expand the area under soybeans in Europe, which has already increased by 80% over the past 10 years.

However, not all farmers will benefit from this scenario. Rising soybean prices will mean higher feed costs for livestock farmers, which could significantly affect their profitability. “Soybean farmers will be happy with higher prices for their crops, while livestock producers will face more expensive feed,” Fromwald explains.

Other factors may complicate the situation. In particular, the EU has seen a decline in the production of rapeseed and sunflower seeds this season, which are often used as alternative sources of feed. This may further raise prices on the market.

It is difficult to predict how significant the price increase will be, as the soybean market remains quite volatile. In 2025, the EU has already imported more soybeans from the US (3.6 mln tons) than from Brazil (2.4 mln tons), but this trend may change if the import of US soybeans is limited.

“As Brazil expects a record soybean harvest this year, there is a possibility that the EU will reorient to Brazilian suppliers, which will help to partially contain the price increase,” concludes Nicoro.

Tags: prices, soybean, USA, EU