How soybeans became a fault line in China’s food security

China, which now purchases 60% of the world’s soybeans, has turned the crop into a central indicator of its food security strategy and a leverage point in its trade tensions with the United States. As a key source of animal feed and cooking oil, soybeans have repeatedly surfaced as a flashpoint in bilateral relations — from tariff battles to ongoing geopolitical competition.

Over the past three decades, China has evolved from a soybean exporter into the world’s largest importer, buying around 100 million tonnes annually. This shift reflects surging domestic demand, sweeping trade reforms, WTO accession, and technological changes in agriculture. Despite ongoing efforts to reduce import dependence, limited arable land makes China structurally reliant on foreign supplies.

Following trade liberalisation and China’s WTO entry, the United States became a dominant supplier, supported by high yields, GM technology and efficient logistics. But the 2018 trade war triggered a reassessment of risks: Beijing recognised that US soybeans could be “weaponised” and moved to diversify suppliers, boost domestic output and adjust agricultural policies.

Recent strategies include the national soybean revitalisation plan, investments in high-yield and high-oil varieties, incentives for farmers and development of alternative protein sources. Domestic production has risen nearly one-third since 2018 but still meets only about one-fifth of demand. At the same time, China has shifted its import focus toward Brazil and Argentina, with Brazilian soybeans accounting for 85.5% of imports in September.

According to outlook projections, China’s soybean imports could fall to 79 million tonnes by 2034 as yields improve, substitutes enter livestock feed, and vegetable oil consumption stabilises. Yet full self-sufficiency remains unattainable. Under President Xi Jinping’s “all-encompassing approach to food security,” Beijing is expanding beyond traditional crops — from forest-based foods and grass-fed livestock to deep-sea aquaculture — but soybeans will continue to shape the country’s food strategy and global trade footprint for years to come.

Tags: China, soybean