Hot and dry autumn is lowering the forecast for olive oil production in Spain

The lack of rain and high temperatures in September and October have led Spain’s largest agricultural cooperative to revise its olive oil production estimates down to 1.3 million metric tons for the 2025/26 crop year.

According to Spain’s state-run meteorological agency, the beginning of autumn has brought above-average temperatures, negatively affecting oil accumulation in the fruit and potentially its quality as well.

As recently as September, Spanish olive oil production was expected to match or even exceed last crop year’s yield of 1.45 million tons.

Now, Cooperativas Agro-alimentarias anticipates production will not meet the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food’s 1.37 million ton estimate published in October.

While irrigated olive groves will be fine after plentiful winter and spring precipitation refilled Andalusian aquifers, lakes and reservoirs, olive farmers said rain in November could improve the situation in the non-irrigated groves, which make up 70 percent of the total.

Expectations for the harvest decline as farmers, especially in traditional, non-irrigated olive groves, face rising costs and an unstable market.

”Without an effective and stable water policy, the risk of these olive groves being abandoned is real,” the cooperative said, calling for regional and national authorities to invest in irrigation infrastructure and modernization and the restructuring of the olive sector.

The cooperative’s call to action comes on the heels of new research published by the University of Alicante that illustrates the increasing threat posed to olive groves by desertification.

The research found that inappropriate agricultural practices, such as eliminating cover crops and planting on steep slopes, have made the olive groves vulnerable to erosion and declining soil fertility.

“The loss of fertile soil has become the main problem associated with olive cultivation, contributing significantly to the desertification process affecting a significant portion of Spain,” José Alfonso Gómez Calero, a researcher at the university, told Oleorevista.

The research pointed to the proliferation of high-density and super-high-density olive groves as one of the main culprits in Andalusia’s desertification.

”This intensive model threatens traditional orchards and leads to land abandonment due to high maintenance costs and reduced soil sustainability,” Gómez said.

“To mitigate desertification, the use of living plant covers in olive groves and other woody crops has been investigated,” he added. “These cover crops protect the soil from erosion, improve its stability and retain moisture, contributing to the sustainability of the agricultural system and preserving soil fertility.”

The increasingly pessimistic view of the upcoming harvest has also led to prices for extra virgin, virgin and lampante olive oils at origin rising steadily since May.

Extra virgin olive oil prices have climbed from €3.20 to €4.10 per kilogram. Prices for virgin olive oil rose from €2.80 to €3.65, while lampante rose from €2.64 to €3.50 over that period.

Tags: Spain, drought, olive oil