Analysts predict that Brazil could produce a record soybean crop in 2026, which may put pressure on U.S. prices. Joana Colussi, assistant professor at Purdue University, estimates that production in Brazil could exceed 177 million tons this year.
Favorable weather has supported strong yields, although some drought-affected areas in southern Brazil remain a concern. Central-West regions have reported particularly high productivity, allowing farmers to potentially set a new national record.
Bree Baatz, a grain and oilseeds analyst at Terrian, notes that record global supplies may keep the soybean market bearish. As a low-cost global supplier, Brazil’s expansion could limit U.S. export opportunities.
At the same time, Colussi points out that Brazilian farmers are facing rising input costs. With the lowest profit margins in 15 years, further expansion of soybean acreage may slow down in the next growing season.
Baatz recommends that the U.S. focus on long-term strategies to boost domestic biofuel production, which could help offset potential future losses in soybean exports.
