High oleic sunflower recovery hinges on HO SFS premiums (2025/26 Outlook)

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Svitlana Kupreeva

Oilseed Market Analyst

Prior to the conflict, Ukraine HO sunflower seed output increase year by year, driven by rising global food sector demand for HO sunflower oil.

However, the past three years (2022-2024) HO SFS area has been decreasing due to:

• The war removed key growing regions from Ukrainian control.
• Logistical Bottlenecks.
• Premium Volatility.
• Seed Supply.
• Adverse Weather.

In 2024/25, HO SFS areas decreased and became the lowest since the 2019/20. Low yields under the influence of heat and drought exacerbated the negative result.

Significant portion of HO SFO is shipped abroad.

The main factor limiting HO sunflower area expansion is low and unstable farmers’ margins. Low or even zero premiums often force farmers to sell HO SFS at conventional sunflower seed price, does not always covering the produciton costs. This reduces HO SFS acreage, sometimes to the point of eliminating HO sunflower seed production.

Over the past five seasons (2020-2025), the average HO SFS premium ranged from UAH 500/Eur12 up to 1500/Eur35/mt  (with more significant deviations in certain months). However, in the first five months of 2024/25 (Sept-Jan), the premium was record high, exceeding UAH 5000 (Eur115)/mt. In February, the premium remains firmly above UAH 5000/mt. This high premium will be a decisive factor in expanding HO SFS areas in 2025.

Full version of the article is available to subscribers of the Weekly  ‘BLACK SEA & DANUBE OILSEED REPORT’ by UkrAgroConsult.

Request a free a sample report and apply for subscription here.

Be confident with your business and trade strategy based on professional analysis and forecasts of the Black Sea agri market.

Tags: supply and demand balance, high oleic sunflower, Ukraine, sunflower oil, sunseed