Grain production in the world in 2023 was a record – FAO

FAO’s forecast for world cereal production in 2023 has been revised upward by 13.2 million tonnes (0.5 percent) this month and is set to reach a record high of 2 836 million tonnes. This represents a 1.2 percent (33.3 million tonnes) increase from the 2022 level. The revision is primarily the result of better-than-previously envisaged maize outputs in several key producing countries, while more modest upward revisions were made to the global barley and wheat production forecasts. The global coarse grain output is pegged at an all-time high of 1 523 million tonnes, following a 12-million-tonne upward adjustment this month. The bulk of the revision reflects new official data from Canada, China (mainland), Türkiye and the United States of America, where a combination of higher yields and larger harvested areas than previously expected has led to higher maize production estimates. The global barley output has also been raised, with changes mostly concentrated in Canada and the Russian Federation, while the world wheat production has been lifted by 1.4 million tonnes and now stands at 788.5 million tonnes in 2023, albeit still 2.2 percent lower year on year. The improved production outlook this month is mainly driven by Canada’s wheat yield and harvested area surpassing earlier estimates, more than compensating for a reduction in Brazil’s wheat forecast due to the effects of heat waves and excessive rainfall. As for rice, the production estimate for China (mainland) has been lowered since December, as official assessments indicate that planting cuts in important northeastern producing provinces were more pronounced than previously anticipated by FAO. Nevertheless, this revision is largely compensated by production upgrades for a host of other countries, particularly Nepal, where a record harvest is reported to have been attained despite weather vagaries, and Mali and Guinea, owing to pronounced area expansions. As a result, FAO’s forecast of world rice production in 2023/24 now stands at 524.6 million tonnes (milled basis), marginally lower than the December forecast but still 0.6 percent above the 2022/23 outcome.

Looking ahead to 2024, global winter wheat sowings are expected to contract moderately year on year due to softer international prices. In the United States of America, lower prices have led to a 6-percent drop in winter wheat plantings. However, early drought conditions are impacting a significantly smaller area of the winter wheat crop than in 2023 and may lead to a lower abandonment rate than in the previous year. In the European Union, delays in sowings caused by heavy rains have contributed to a small cutback in the winter wheat area. A cold spell in the Baltic Sea region during December caused some frost damage, while rainfall deficits have continued in southern Spain and parts of Italy. In Ukraine, the impacts of the war have kept output prices low and input costs high, reducing profitability and liquidity, which could lead to a further decline in wheat plantings in 2024. In the Russian Federation, although most winter wheat crops are reportedly in good condition, abnormally warm weather in key wheat-producing southern districts followed by a precipitous drop in temperatures without sufficient snow cover may have caused localised frost damage. In India, favourable weather and remunerative prices are seen spurring an increase in the wheat area in 2024. Similarly, near-record high domestic prices in Pakistan have driven an uptick in wheat plantings, and with adequate availability of irrigation water supplies, the 2024 wheat production outlook is mostly favourable. In China (mainland), the area planted to wheat is estimated to be above the past five-year average, underpinned by strong domestic demand and an increase in the minimum purchase price.

In the southern hemisphere, the bulk of the 2024 coarse grain crops is expected to be harvested from the second quarter of the year. In Brazil, excessive rainfall in southern parts and dryness and high temperatures elsewhere have adversely affected plantings and yield potentials of the first (minor) season maize crop. However, Brazil is still expected to harvest an above-average maize crop in 2024, albeit lower than the all-time high of 2023. In Argentina, following the drought-affected harvest in 2023, maize production is expected to rebound in 2024, supported by above-average plantings and generally conducive weather conditions. In South Africa, early estimates point to a small expansion in 2024 maize plantings, partly at the expense of soybeans, as farmers rotate crops. While early-season rainfall conditions have been mostly favourable, some uncertainty regarding yield potentials remains, reflecting forecasts of lower rainfall and higher temperatures in the coming months.

The forecast for world cereal utilization in 2023/24 has been raised by 8.9 million tonnes since December to 2 822 million tonnes, surpassing the 2022/23 level by 1.2 percent (34.5 million tonnes). Now standing at 794 million tonnes, FAO’s forecast for total wheat utilization in 2023/24 has been lifted by 2.9 million tonnes since December and indicates a 2.0 percent (15.4 million tonnes) increase from 2022/23. The revision reflects greater-than-earlier anticipated feed use, especially in the European Union as well as in Australia and the United States of America. Total coarse grain utilization in 2023/24 is also forecast to rise by 1.3 percent (19.5 million tonnes) above its 2022/23 level, reaching 1 505 million tonnes, up 5.4 million tonnes from the December report. Higher-than-earlier anticipated feed use of maize and barley, especially in China, is the main driver behind this month’s upward revision. Global rice utilization in 2023/24 is forecast to remain close to the 2022/23 level at 522.2 million tonnes, despite a 0.6-million-tonne upward revision since December, as a population-led expansion in rice food intake is expected to be offset by cuts in other end uses.

FAO’s latest forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of seasons in 2024 stands at 895 million tonnes, up 8.9 million tonnes since December and 2.6 percent (23.0 million tonnes) higher than opening levels. The global cereal stocks-to-use ratio in 2023/24 is forecast at a comfortable level of 31.1 percent, exceeding the 2022/23 level of 30.9 percent. This month’s revision mostly stems from a 9.4-million-tonne upward adjustment to coarse grain inventories, which boosted the forecast to 377 million tonnes, representing a 6.9 percent (24.4 million tonnes) increase above opening levels. Although an increase in maize inventories (mostly in China and Mexico) makes up the bulk of this month’s upward revision, stocks of barley and sorghum were also revised upwards. At 320 million tonnes, the forecast for global wheat inventories is nearly unchanged from December and still pointing to a decline of 1.1 percent (3.5 million tonnes) below opening levels. Upward revisions this month to stocks in Argentina, Australia and the Russian Federation have offset downward revisions made for Ukraine, the European Union and the United States of America.  World rice stocks at the close of the 2023/24 marketing years are now pegged at 198.8 million tonnes, down 0.9 million tonnes from the December forecast, but still 1.1 percent above the 2022/23 estimated level.

Following an upward revision of 11.5 million tonnes since December, world trade in cereals in 2023/24 is now forecast to increase from the 2022/23 level by 0.8 percent (3.7 million tonnes), reaching 480 million tonnes. World wheat trade in 2023/24 (July/June), forecast at 197 million tonnes, is still set to contract by 1.3 percent (2.5 million tonnes) from 2022/23, despite a 3.4-million-tonne upward revision that mostly reflects better export prospects for Ukraine and a stronger demand spread across several importers. World trade in coarse grains in 2023/24 (July/June) has been raised by 8.9 million tonnes since December to 231.0 million tonnes, representing a 3.3 percent (7.5 million tonnes) increase from the 2022/23 level. Larger-than-earlier expected maize exports from Türkiye, Ukraine and the Russian Federation, along with stronger demand from China and, to a lesser extent, Mexico, contributed to a 5.6-million-tonne upward revision to the forecast for global maize trade, now pegged at 1.8 percent above the 2022/23 level. The global barley trade forecast has also been lifted by 3.0 million tonnes on bigger sales from the Russian Federation and stronger demand from China. The forecast for international trade in rice in 2024 (January-December) has been lowered by 0.8 million tonnes to 51.5 million tonnes, largely reflecting less buoyant import expectations for Nepal and Nigeria and implying a 2.3 percent contraction from the already reduced 2023 level.

Tags: wheat, FAO, crop forecast, corn, grain, barley, rice