Grain exports in Kazakhstan were weak this season

The grain export season in Kazakhstan is ending with disappointing results, having not reached the declared 12 million tons. Zeynolla Abdumanapov, Chairman of the Board of the National Association of Exporters KazGrain, told this in an interview with APK News. According to his estimates, the actual export volume was only 7-8 million tons, which is significantly lower than official forecasts.

The weak export season is explained by several factors. First, in April-May 2025, demand for Kazakh grain fell sharply both from China and from traditional markets in Central Asia. Insignificant activity was observed only in distant markets, such as Europe and Azerbaijan, but overall exports during these months amounted to only 500-600 thousand tons. This is significantly less than the expected monthly shipments of 1 million tons in January-March.

One reason for the low demand was the reduction in purchases from Uzbekistan, which was focused on the Afghan market, where there was also no expected activity. In addition, farmers in Kazakhstan focused on the sowing campaign, which limited their ability to sell grain residues. High prices for third-grade wheat and a shortage of fourth-grade wheat, which is in demand in the Uzbek-Afghan market, also complicated the situation.

Grain prices increased due to active demand for feed flour from China in March 2025. Mills purchased fourth- and fifth-grade wheat to reduce the cost of flour, which led to an increase in prices for these varieties to the level of third-grade wheat. However, in May, price growth stopped due to low demand and limited supply of fourth-grade wheat, which the Uzbek market is willing to buy for $ 200-205 per ton, while Kazakhstan offers it for $ 210-215.

An additional challenge was the instability of the tenge exchange rate, which affected the competitiveness of Kazakh grain. For example, third-class wheat, taking into account all export costs (logistics, paperwork) does not fit into the price expectations of buyers. An unstable exchange rate complicates planning and reduces the profitability of exports.

Grain export subsidies, which were supposed to support farmers, turned out to be ineffective due to delays in payments. As of May 2025, exporters had applied for subsidies for more than 200 thousand tons, but the funds had not yet arrived. Abdumanapov believes that constant subsidization is not advisable, as it can lead to market dependence on state support and lower prices from buyers who take subsidies into account in their calculations.

Exports to China have faced new barriers. In particular, to supply barley to China, exporters must submit applications a month in advance, which complicates trade due to price volatility. The main demand from China is for low-quality feed flour, while high-quality wheat is targeted at markets in Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, North Africa and Europe. Access to these markets is partly ensured by subsidies and low production costs.

Export prospects in 2025 will depend on the harvest. In the southern regions of Kazakhstan (Almaty, Turkestan, Zhambyl regions) a loss of harvest is forecast due to abnormal heat, while in the northern grain belt the weather is favorable, with rains and stable temperatures. If the harvest is 15-16 million tons of grain, including 9-10 million tons of wheat, demand in traditional markets such as Uzbekistan may recover due to local grain shortages.

Kazakh farmers plan to diversify crops, switching to legumes and oilseeds, including flax and sunflower, due to high demand and better profitability. Barley has also become popular due to high demand from Iran and China, making it more expensive than wheat. The low cost of barley could allow Kazakhstan to compete with Russia in the Iranian market.

The national association KazGrain sees potential in expanding oilseed exports to 2 million tons per year, which could supply both domestic plants and exports. However, success will depend on a balance between yield, prices and logistics. Abdumanapov emphasizes that for the market to develop sustainably, it is necessary to avoid excessive dependence on subsidies and focus on competitiveness in international markets.

Tags: Kazakhstan, grain, barley, wheat, supply and demand balance