Grain exports from Ukraine slowed by 30% in the first half of the season — FAS USDA

In the first half of the MY 2025/26  (July–December 2025), Ukraine exported 7.8 million tons of wheat and 1.3 million tons of barley, according to data from the State Customs Service of Ukraine. At the same time, the average rate of grain exports was 30% lower than in the same period of the 2024/25 marketing year, according to the FAS USDA report.

The key factors in the decline in exports were Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy system, railway and port infrastructure, as well as on ships – both in ports and in the Black Sea. Additional pressure on wheat supplies was created by EU tariff rate quotas, due to which the share of wheat and barley exports in this direction in July–December 2025 decreased to approximately pre-war levels.

Wheat exports for the first six months of MY 2025/26 amounted to 7.9 million tons, which is 20% less year-on-year. Deliveries to the EU decreased to 2.9 million tons. However, part of the decline was offset by an increase in shipments to alternative markets. In particular, exports to Egypt increased to 2 million tons (versus 800 thousand tons a year earlier), to Algeria to 1.2 million tons, to Yemen to 593 thousand tons, and to Lebanon to 298 thousand tons.

According to FAS estimates, in July-December Ukraine shipped about half of its projected wheat export potential in MY 2025/26. At the beginning of the season, farmers mainly sold feed wheat, while they held food wheat, counting on higher demand and prices in the second half of the marketing year.

FAS expects wheat exports to continue to follow a similar pattern, with the gradual sale of surpluses, primarily food wheat.

Barley exports in the first half of MY 2025/26 amounted to 1.3 million tons, down 34% year-on-year. Deliveries decreased to all traditional destinations, including the EU, China, and Libya, and were not offset by increased exports to Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and Turkey.

Corn exports in the early MY 2025/26 (October–December 2025) amounted to 5 million tons, down 29% compared to the previous season. Deliveries to the EU decreased by 41%, to Turkey by 18%. According to industry data, during this period, farmers mainly sold corn, which is problematic for long-term storage due to its quality.

Based on current production estimates and actual export volumes, the FAS forecast for the MY 2025/26 is: wheat – 14.3 million tons, barley – 3.1 million tons, corn – 23.2 million tons, rye – 10 thousand tons. The estimates are made on the condition that the Black Sea ports remain operational, and rail logistics will ensure the export of grain from inland elevators to the ports.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, export, grain, barley, wheat