Goods from Ukraine do not have a significant impact on the import policies of key partner countries

Exports from Ukraine make up a small share of the total imports of the vast majority of key partner countries, with the exception of Moldova, where its share reaches 12.1%.

This was announced by the Director of Scientific Work of the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting Veronika Movchan during the presentation of the study “Assessment of Response Measures, Expectations and Behavioral Strategies of Key Importers of Ukrainian Products”.

According to statistical calculations, Poland, Romania, Turkey, Moldova, Germany, Hungary, the Netherlands, China and Slovakia were identified as key partners of Ukraine.

“Except for Moldova, where the share of imports from Ukraine reaches 12.1%, in other partner countries our share in total imports does not exceed 1.4%, and in China – only 0.2%. That is, Ukraine does not play a significant role in the total imports of most partners,” said Movchan.

At the same time, even in those sectors where Ukraine has significant positions (sunflower oil, waste after its extraction, iron ores and concentrates), this does not mean a leading role in general. According to the expert, in the eyes of partners, Ukraine is rather one of many suppliers, rather than a key player in any of the markets.

It is important to note that after the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukrainian companies began to enter foreign markets more actively. So Movchan believes that Ukraine actually began to be noticed not only because of its products, but generally because of its appearance on the markets: the entry of Novaya Poshta into European markets, the relocation of IT business from Ukraine to Poland, etc.

In addition, the expert focused on the barriers that Ukrainian business faces. Among the main ones are increased control and blocking of borders, in particular in neighboring countries such as Poland, Romania, Hungary. This creates significant obstacles for Ukrainian products, which makes the issue of trade increasingly politicized and adds to the situation of unpredictability.

The researchers also developed a classification of countries by the risk of imposing restrictions: high, medium and low. According to Movchan, one of the main criteria was the use of emergency measures, in particular, blocking borders, politicizing trade relations with Ukraine and the use of non-tariff measures, such as trade barriers.

“We see this in neighboring countries. The use of measures that are tied to national security, which are outside the scope of formal agreements and formal restrictions that we agreed on. Individual bans outside the association agreement, which are generally very atypical for the common market of the European Union,” she noted.

Thus, countries with a high risk of introducing restrictions include Poland, Hungary and Slovakia, medium risk is recorded in Romania, Moldova and Bulgaria, and the lowest risk is seen in Germany, the Netherlands, Turkey and China.

During the preparation of the study, more than 30 representatives of Ukrainian embassies, business associations, chambers of commerce and companies operating in the markets of partner countries were interviewed, official statistics for the last 5 years and publications in open networks were processed.

Tags: export, Romania, EU, Poland, Moldova, Hungary, Ukraine